Discussion Paper Series

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The CFM Discussion Paper Series publishes high quality research in macroeconomics. Papers published in the series are publicised through academic and other forums for impact and visibility in research and policy communities.

Papers listed most recent first. Authors listed in alphabetical order.

 

2024

Bubble Necessity Theorem
Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda
Paper No CFM-DP2024-21, April 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Unemployment in a Commodity-Rich Economy: How Relevant Is Dutch Disease?
Mariano Kulish, James Morley, Nadine Yamout and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-20, April 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Dominant Currency Pricing Transition
Marco Garofalo, Giovanni Rosso and Roger Vicquéry
Paper No CFM-DP2024-19, April 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation 
Salomé Fofana, Paula Patzelt and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-18, April 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monetary financing does not produce miraculous fiscal multipliers
Christiaan van der Kwaak
Paper No CFM-DP2024-17, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Adoption and Termination of Suppliers over the Business Cycle
Le Xu, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-16, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution using Dividend Tax News Shocks
Martin B. Holm, Rustam Jamilov, Marek Jasinski and Plamen Nenov
Paper No CFM-DP2024-15, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Granular Sentiments
Rustam Jamilov, Alexandre Kohlhas, Oleksandr Talavera and Mao Zhang
Paper No CFM-DP2024-14, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Government Debt Management and Inflation with Real and Nominal Bonds
Lukas Schmid, Vytautas Valaitis and Alessandro T. Villa
Paper No CFM-DP2024-13, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-12, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Estimating the rise in expected inflation from higher energy prices
Paula Patzelt and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-11, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Fiscal Events and Anchored Inflation Expectations
Ethan Ilzetzki
Paper No CFM-DP2024-10, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Fiscal Rules and Market Discipline
Ethan Ilzetzki and Heidi Christina Thysen
Paper No CFM-DP2024-09, March 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

UK Financial Crisis of 2022: Retrospective Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations
Ethan Ilzetzki
Paper No CFM-DP2024-08, February 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Core Strength: International Evidence on the Impact of Energy Prices on Core Inflation
Gertjan Vlieghe
Paper No CFM-DP2024-07, February 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monetary-Fiscal Interaction and the Liquidity of Government Debt
Cristiano Cantore and Edoardo Leonardi
Paper No CFM-DP2024-06, January 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptionson Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory
Xiwen Bai, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2024-05, January 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Banks, Credit Reallocation, and Creative Destruction
Christian Keuschnigg, Michael Kogler, and Johannes Matt
Paper No CFM-DP2024-04, January 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression
Jason Lennard and Meredith M. Paker
Paper No CFM-DP2024-03, January 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Banks and the Economy: Evidence from the Irish Bank Strike of 1966
Jason Lennard, Seán Kenny and Emma Horgan
Paper No CFM-DP2024-02, January 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

The anatomy of a peg: lessons from China’s parallel currencies
Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2024-01, January 2024
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2023

European Business Cycles and Economic Growth, 1300-2000
Stephen Broadberry and Jason Lennard
Paper No CFM-DP2023-23, November 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Bubble Economics
Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda
Paper No CFM-DP2023-22, November 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Bonus Question: Does Flexible Incentive Pay Dampen Unemployment Dynamics?
Meghana Gaur, John Grigsby, Jonathon Hazell and Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Paper No CFM-DP2023-21, September 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks
Ricardo Nunes, Ali Ozdagli and Jenny Tang
Paper No CFM-DP2023-20, July 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Pricing: Macro and Micro Evidence
Brendan Berthold, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Federico Di Pace and Alex Haberis
Paper No CFM-DP2023-19, July 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

House Price Expectations and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data
Vedanta Dhamija, Ricardo Nunes and Roshni Tara
Paper No CFM-DP2023-18, July 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

To Own or to Rent? The Effects of Transaction Taxes on Housing Markets
Lu Han, L. Rachel Ngai and Kevin D. Sheedy
Paper No CFM-DP2023-17, June 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Effect of the UK’s 2022 Cost-of-Living Payments
Max. A. Mosley and Edmund Cornforth
Paper No CFM-DP2023-16, May 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency
Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
Paper No CFM-DP2023-15, May 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Dash for Dollars
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Robert Czech and Fernando Eguren-Martin
Paper No CFM-DP2023-14, April 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Self-fulfilling labor wedge fluctuations and unemployment insurance
Nikolaos Kokonas and Paulo Santos Monteiro
Paper No CFM-DP2023-13, March 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Doubts about the model and optimal policy
Anastasios G. Karantounias
Paper No CFM-DP2023-12, March 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Regional Keynesian Cross
Marco Bellifemine, Adrien Couturier and Rustam Jamilov
Paper No CFM-DP2023-11, March 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Racial Wealth Gap: the Role of Entrepreneurship
Daniel Albuquerque and Tomer Ifergane
Paper No CFM-DP2023-10, March 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

CBDC Policies in Open Economies
Michael Kumhof, Marco Pinchetti, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul and Andrej Sokol
Paper No CFM-DP2023-09, March 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A tail of labor supply and a tale of monetary policy
Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni, Haroon Mumtaz and Angeliki Theophilopoulou
Paper No CFM-DP2023-08, March 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Global house prices since 1950
Haroon Mumtaz and Roman Šustek
Paper No CFM-DP2023-07, March 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Capital Controls and Free-Trade Agreements
Simon Lloyd and Emile Marin
Paper No CFM-DP2023-06, February 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Learning By Necessity: Government demand, capacity constraints, and productivity growth
Ethan Ilzetzki
Paper No CFM-DP2023-05, February 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty
Luca Gambetti, Dimitris Korobilis, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2023-04, February 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Exchange Rates, Tariffs and Prices in 1930s’ Britain
Jagjit S. Chadha, Jason Lennard, Solomos Solomou and Ryland Thomas
Paper No CFM-DP2023-03, February 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Four mistakes in the use of measures of expected inflation
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2023-02, January 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: Measurement and Policy Responses
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2023-01, January 2023
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2022

When to Lock, Not Whom: Managing Epidemics Using Time-Based Restrictions
Yinon Bar-On, Tanya Baron, Ofer Cornfeld and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2022-20, December 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Social Capital and Monetary Policy
Rustam Jamilov
Paper No CFM-DP2022-19, November 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Testing the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in Japan and the United States
Daisuke Ikeda, Shangshang Li, Sophocles Mavroeidis and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2022-18, October 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Divisia approach to measuring output and productivity: with an application to the BEA-BLS integrated industry-level production account, 1987-2020
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2022-17, October 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Energy Prices and Household Heterogeneity: Monetary Policy in a Gas-TANK
Jenny Chan, Sebastian Diz, and Derrick Kanngiesser
Paper No CFM-DP2022-16, October 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence
Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, Tomohiro Hirano and Ryo Jinnai
Paper No CFM-DP2022-15, September 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2022-14, September 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

The Ins and Outs of Selling Houses: Understanding Housing-Market Volatility
L. Rachel Ngai and Kevin D. Sheedy
Paper No CFM-DP2022-13, September 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

Time to Say Goodbye: The Macroeconomic Implications of Termination Notice
Tomer Ifergane
Paper No CFM-DP2022-12, September 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

Mainly Employment: Survey-Based News and the Business Cycle
Riccardo M. Masolo
Paper No CFM-DP2022-11, August 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Markup Estimation
Maarten De Ridder, Basile Grassi and Giovanni Morzenti
Paper No CFM-DP2022-10, August 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

The Burst of High Inflation in 2021–22: How and Why Did We Get Here?
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2022-09, July 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: The Source of Fluctuations Matters
Mishel Ghassibe and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2022-08, July 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

Firm Cyclicality and Financial Frictions
Alex Clymo and Filip Rozsypal
Paper No CFM-DP2022-07, June 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

Sanctions and the Exchange Rate
Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin
Paper No CFM-DP2022-06, May 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]  

The Productivity-Welfare Linkage: A Decomposition
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2022-05, March 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]  

The Wobbly Economy; Global Dynamics with Phase Transitions and State Transitions
Tomohiro Hirano and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Paper No CFM-DP2022-04, January 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]  

National Wage Setting
Jonathon Hazell, Christina Patterson, Heather Sarsons and Bledi Taska
Paper No CFM-DP2022-03, January 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]   

Unemployment Insurance Financing As A Uniform Payroll Tax
Sebastian Graves, Jonathon Hazell, Walker F. Lewis and Christina Patterson
Paper No CFM-DP2022-02, January 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]   

Land Speculation and Wobbly Dynamics with Endogenous Phase Transitions
Tomohiro Hirano and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Paper No CFM-DP2022-01, January 2022
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2021

The effect of changes in the terms of trade on GDP and welfare: a Divisia approach to the SNA 
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2021-26, November 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]  

Trade Credit Default
Xavier Mateos-Planas and Giulio Seccia
Paper No CFM-DP2021-25, November 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]  

Optimal Policy under Dollar Pricing
Konstantin Egorov and Dmitry Mukhin
Paper No CFM-DP2021-24, October 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]  

Losing the inflation anchor
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2021-23, October 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]  

Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times
Roman Šustek
Paper No CFM-DP2021-22, October 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]  

The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows 
Felipe Saffie, Liliana Varela and Kei-Mu Yi
Paper No CFM-DP2021-21, October 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

A back-of-the-envelope analysis of house prices: Czech Republic, 2013-2021
Roman Šustek
Paper No CFM-DP2021-20, October 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

Bubbles, Crashes, and Ups and Downs in Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence 
Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana,Tomohiro Hirano and Ryo Jinnai
Paper No CFM-DP2021-19, September 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

Climate-Change Pledges, Actions and Outcomes
Silvana Tenreyro and Tiloka de Silva
Paper No CFM-DP2021-18, September 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A Tale of Two Global Monetary Policies
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Tsvetelina  Nenova
Paper No CFM-DP2021-17, August 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Transmission of Keynesian Supply Shocks    
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Andrea Ferrero
Paper No CFM-DP2021-16, August 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Profitability, Productivity and Growth
Marek Ignaszak and Petr Sedláček
Paper No CFM-DP2021-15, June 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Size Discount and Size Penalty: Trading Costs in Bond Markets
Gábor Pintér, Chaojun Wang and Junyuan Zou
Paper No CFM-DP2021-14, April 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve
Guido Ascari and Luca Fosso
Paper No CFM-DP2021-13, April 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix
Guido Ascari, Peder Beck-Friis, Anna Florio and Alessandro Gobbi
Paper No CFM-DP2021-12, March 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The constraint on public debt when r < g but g < m
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2021-11, March 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits
Anthony Savagar
Paper No CFM-DP2021-10, March 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Short-squeeze bubbles
Bernardo Guimaraes and Pierluca Pannella
Paper No CFM-DP2021-09, March 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Imperfect Information, Heterogeneous Demand Shocks, and Inflation Dynamics
Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2021-08, March 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions
Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui
Paper No CFM-DP2021-07, February 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Contrarian Put
Fernando Chague, Bruno Giovannetti and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No CFM-DP2021-06, February 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The “Matthew Effect” and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power
Jeśus Fernández-Villaverde, Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2021-05, February 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Limits of onetary Economics: On Money As a Latent Medium of Exchange
Ricardo Lagos and Shengxing Zhang
Paper No CFM-DP2021-04, February 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Puzzling Change in the International Transmission of U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Shocks
Ethan Ilzetzki and Keyu Jin
Paper No CFM-DP2021-03, January 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monetary Policy, Firm Heterogeneity, and Product Variety
Masashige Hamano and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2021-02, January 2021
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Economic Growth in a Cooperative Economy
Thomas Brzustowski and Francesco Caselli 
Paper No CFM-DP2021-01, January 2021 
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2020

The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2020-33, December 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Informed Trading and the Dynamics of Client-Dealer Connections in Corporate Bond Markets
Robert Czech and Gábor Pintér
Paper No CFM-DP2020-32, December 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Credit Frictions in the Great Recession
Patrick J. Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigan and Elena Pastorino
Paper No CFM-DP2020-31, December 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

COVID19: Erroneous Modelling and Its Policy Implications
Yinon Bar-On, Tatiana Baron, Ofer Cornfeld, Ron Milo and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2020-30, December 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

An Analytical Model of Covid-19 Lockdowns
Łukasz Rachel
Paper No CFM-DP2020-29, December 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires
Jonathon Hazell and Bledi Taska
Paper No CFM-DP2020-28, December 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

New Shocks under Financial Frictions
Christoph Görtz, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2020-27, November 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A Multisector Perspective on Wage Stagnation
Rachel Ngai and Orhun Sevinc
Paper No CFM-DP2020-26, November 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Economic Impact of Recession Announcements
Andrew C. Eggers, Martin Ellison and Sang Seok Lee
Paper No CFM-DP2020-25, November 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates
Iryna Kaminska, Haroon Mumtaz and Roman Sustek
Paper No CFM-DP2020-24, November 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Productive Robots and Industrial Employment: The role of national innovation systems
Chrystalla Kapetaniou and Christopher A Pissarides
Paper No CFM-DP2020-23, September 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight?
Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
Paper No CFM-DP2020-22, July 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models
Bernardo Guimaraes and Lucas Tumkus
Paper No CFM-DP2020-21, July 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monetary Policy and Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations
Jenny Chan
Paper No CFM-DP2020-20, July 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Debt crises, fast and slow
Giancarlo Corsetti and Seung Hyun Maeng
Paper No CFM-DP2020-19, June 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A century of arbitrage and disaster risk pricing in the foreign exchange market
Giancarlo Corsetti and Emile A. Marin
Paper No CFM-DP2020-18, June 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Stabilization of Tariff Shocks: What is the Optimal Monetary Response?
Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti
Paper No CFM-DP2020-17, June 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic
Martin Bodenstein, Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri 
Paper No CFM-DP2020-16, June 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Jumpstarting an International Currency
Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2020-15, May 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in General Equilibrium
Nikolaos Kokonas and Paulo Santos Monteiro
Paper No CFM-DP2020-14, May 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Effect of Social Distancing on the Reach of an Epidemic in Social Networks
Gregory Gutin, Tomohiro Hirano, Sung-Ha Hwang, Philip R. Neary and Alexis Akira Toda
Paper No CFM-DP2020-13, May 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth
Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, Tomohiro Hirano and Ryo Jinnai
Paper No CFM-DP2020-12, April 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Volatile Hiring: Uncertainty in Search and Matching Models
Wouter den Haan, Lukas B. Freund and Pontus Rendahl
Paper No CFM-DP2020-11, April 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Moving from a Poor Economy to a Rich One: The Contradictory Roles of Technology and Job Tasks
Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2020-10, March 2020
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy
Martin Bodenstein, Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Guerrieri
Paper No CFM-DP2020-09
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc
Paper No CFM-DP2020-08
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] Technical Appendix [PDF]

Financial constraints and collateral crises
Luis Araujo, Bernardo Guimaraes and Diego Rodrigues
Paper No CFM-DP2020-07
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Output Costs of Education and Skill Mismatch
Pietro Garibaldi, Pedro Gomes and Thepthida Sopraseuth
Paper No CFM-DP2020-06
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity
Gareth Anderson and Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Paper No CFM-DP2020-05
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Global Footprints of Monetary Policies
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Tsvetelina Nenova and Helene Rey
Paper No CFM-DP2020-04
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles
Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born and Ralph Luetticke
Paper No CFM-DP2020-03
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Measuring Productivity: theory and British practice
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2020-02
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Public Employment Redux
Pietro Garibaldi, Pedro Gomes and Thepthida Sopraseuth
Paper No CFM-DP2020-01
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2019

Mortgage Cash-flows and Employment
Fergus Cumming
Paper No CFM-DP2019-22
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

News Uncertainty in Brexit U.K.
Renato Faccini and Edoardo Palombo
Paper No CFM-DP2019-21
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model
Carlos Carriga, Finn E. Kydland and Roman Sustek
Paper No CFM-DP2019-20
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Labour market flows: Accounting for the public sector
Idriss Fontaine, Ismael Galvez-Iniesta, Pedro Gomes and Diego Vila-Martin
Paper No CFM-DP2019-19
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Imperfect Information, Shock Heterogeneity, and Inflation Dynamics
Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga, Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2019-18
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2019-17
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom
Ben Broadbent, Federico Di Pace, Thomas Drechsel, Richard Harrison and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2019-16
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis
Markus K. Bunnermeier and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2019-15
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Fast Trading and the Virtue of Entropy: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market
Giancarlo Corsetti, Romain Lafarguette and Arnaud Mehl
Paper No CFM-DP2019-14
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Revisiting the Global Decline of the (Non-Housing) Labor Share
German Gutierrez and Sophie Piton
Paper No CFM-DP2019-13
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Foreign Direct Investment as a Determinant of Cross-Country Stock Market Comovement
Alexios Anagnostopoulos, Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu, Elisa Faraglia and Chryssi Giannitsarou
Paper No CFM-DP2019-12
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Partial Default
Cristina Arellano, Xavier Mateos-Planas and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull
Paper No CFM-DP2019-11
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Do Unit Labour Costs Matter? A Decomposition Exercise on European Data
Sophie Piton
Paper No CFM-DP2019-10, May 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Unemployment Dynamics and Endogenous Unemployment Insurance Extensions
W. Similan Rujiwattanapong
Paper No CFM-DP2019-09, May 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Distressed Banks, Distorted Decisions?
Gareth Anderson, Rebecca Riley and Garry Young
Paper No CFM-DP2019-08, April 2019
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Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy
Maarten de Ridder
Paper No CFM-DP2019-07, March 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

GDP is a measure of output, not welfare. Or, HOS meets the SNA
Nicholas Outlon
Paper No CFM-DP2019-06, March 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data
Lena Boneva, James Cloyne, Martin Weale and Tomasz Wieladek 
Paper No CFM-DP2019-05, March 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Fiscal Policy and Investment
Carlo Galli
Paper No CFM-DP2019-04, February 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Tax evasion as contingent debt
Christos Kotsogiannis and Xavier Mateos-Planas
Paper No CFM-DP2019-03, February 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016
Joao Ayres, Marcio Garcia, Diogo Guillen and Patrick Kehoe
Paper No CFM-DP2019-02, January 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Private Information and Client Connections in Government Bond Markets
Peter Kondor and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2019-01, January 2019
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2018

Employment and the Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy
Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis, Gabor Pinter and Paolo Surico
Paper No CFM-DP2018-32, December 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Double deflation: theory and practice
Nicholas Oulton, Ana Rincon-Aznar, Lea Samek and Sylaja Srinivasan
Paper No CFM-DP2018-31, December 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Quantitative Easing
Wei Cui and Vincent Sterk
Paper No CFM-DP2018-30, November 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Missing Link: Monetary policy and the labor share
Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni and Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma
Paper No CFM-DP2018-29, November 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Unemployment Insurance and Labour Productivity over the Business Cycle
W. Similan Rujiwattanapong
Paper No CFM-DP2018-28, August 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monopsony in the UK
Will Abel, Silvana Tenreyro and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2018-27, October 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Agnostic Structural Disturbances (ASDs): Detecting and Reducing Misspecification in Empirical Macroeconomic Models
Wouter J. Den Haan and Thomas Drechsel
Paper No CFM-DP2018-26, September 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models: identification using a diagnostic indicator
Jagjit S. Chadha and  Katsuyuki Shibayama
Paper No CFM-DP2018-25, September 2018
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Uncertain Kingdom: Nowcasting GDP and its Revisions
Nikoleta Anesti, Ana Beatriz Galvao and Silvia Miranda-Agrippino
Paper No CFM-DP2018-24, August 2018
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When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Sinem Hacioglu Hoke and Kristina Bluwstein
Paper No CFM-DP2018-23, August 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications
Carlo Pizzinelli, Konstantinos Theodoridis and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2018-22, August 2018
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Of Gold and Paper Money
Jagjit S. Chadha
Paper No CFM-DP2018-21, August 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Consumption Response to Aggregate Shocks and the Role of Leverage
Agnes Kovacs, May Rostom and Philip Bunn
Paper No CFM-DP2018-20, July 2018
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Transmission of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios
Ralph Luetticke
Paper No CFM-DP2018-19, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing
Antonello d’Alessandro, Giulio Fella and Leonardo Melosi
Paper No CFM-DP2018-18, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Nonlinear household earnings dynamics, self-insurance, and welfare
Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella, and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo
Paper No CFM-DP2018-17, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Central Bank Swap Lines
Saleem Bahaj and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2018-16, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve
Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2018-15, May 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Economic Integration and Bilateral FDI stocks: the impacts of NAFTA and the EU
Ray Barrell and Abdulkader Nahhas
Paper No CFM-DP2018-14, May 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Lending Relationships and the Collateral Channel
Gareth Anderson, Saleem Bahaj, Matthieu Chavaz, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2018-13, May 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Macroeconomic Shocks and Risk Premia
Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2018-12, May 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

China’s mobility barriers and employment allocations
L Rachel Ngai, Christopher A Pissarides and Jin Wang
Paper No CFM-DP2018-11, April 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Central Banks Going Long
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2018-10, April 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The UK (and Western) Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2018-09, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco
Paper No CFM-DP2018-08, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Beauty Contests and the Term Structure
Martin Ellison and Andreas Tischbirek
Paper No CFM-DP2018-07, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-off
Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc
Paper No CFM-DP2018-06, March 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

One Money, Many Markets
Giancarlo Corsetti, Joao B. Duarte and Samuel Mann
Paper No CFM-DP2018-05, March 2018
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Social Subsidies and Marketization: the role of gender and skill
Robert Duval-Hernandez, Lei Fang, L. Rachel Ngai
Paper No CFM-DP2018-04, February 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Markets and Markups: A New Empirical Framework and Evidence on Exporters from China
Giancarlo Corsetti, Meredith Crowley, Lu Han, Huasheng Song
Paper No CFM-DP2018-03, February 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

GDP and the System of National Accounts: past, present and future
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2018-02, June 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Time-Consistently Undominated Policies
Charles Brendon and Martin Ellison
Paper No CFM-DP2018-01, January 2018
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2017

The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote
Benjamin Born, Gernot J. Müller, Moritz Schularick and Petr Sedláček
Paper No CFM-DP2017-38, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Nature of Firm Growth
Benjamin W. Pugsley, Petr Sedláček and Vincent Sterk
Paper No CFM-DP2017-37, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Importance of Hiring Frictions in Business Cycles
Renato Faccini and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2017-36, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium
David Rezza Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi
Paper No CFM-DP2017-35, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten’s Theorem
David Rezza Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi
Paper No CFM-DP2017-34, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach Comment
Francesco Caselli and Antonio Ciccone
Paper No CFM-DP2017-33, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Friedman’s Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought
N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2017-32, November 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates
Marco Bassetto and Wei Cui
Paper No CFM-DP2017-31, October 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy
Luca Gambetti, Dimitris Korobilis, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti
Paper No CFM-DP2017-30, October 2017
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Contingent judicial deference: theory and application to usury laws
Bernardo Guimaraes and Bruno Meyerhof Salama
Paper No CFM-DP2017-29, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Skill-Biased Technical Change and Labor Market Polarization: The Role of Skill Heterogeneity Within Occupations
Orhun Sevinc
Paper No CFM-DP2017-28, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017
Martin Ellison and Andrew Scott
Paper No CFM-DP2017-27, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: theory and applications
Bernardo Guimaraes, Caio Machado and Ana Elisa Pereira
Paper No CFM-DP2017-26, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Measuring Productivity Dispersion: Lessons from counting one-hundred million ballots
Ethan Ilzetzki and Saverio Simonelli
Paper No CFM-DP2017-25, September 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Home Values and Firm Behaviour
Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2017-24, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies
Thomas Drechsel and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2017-23, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Step away from the zero lower bound: Small open economies in a world of secular stagnation
Giancarlo Corsetti, Eleonora Mavroeidi, Gregory Thwaites and Martin Wolf
Paper No CFM-DP2017-22, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Fixed on Flexible Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession
Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester and Gernot J. Müller
Paper No CFM-DP2017-21, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Official Sector Lending Strategies During the Euro Area Crisis
Giancarlo Corsetti, Aitor Erce and Timothy Uy
Paper No CFM-DP2017-20, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Macroeconomic Effects of Delayed Capital Liquidation
Wei Cui
Paper No CFM-DP2017-19, August 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Large Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model
Tiloka de Silva and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2017-18, July 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Population Control Policies and Fertility Convergence
Tiloka de Silva and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2017-17, July 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Default Cycles
Wei Cui and Leo Kaas
Paper No CFM-DP2017-16, May 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises
Marco Bassetto and Carlo Galli
Paper No CFM-DP2017-15, April 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data
Miguel Leόn-Ledesma and Alessio Moro
Paper No CFM-DP2017-14, April 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Is something really wrong with macroeconomics?
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2017-13, April 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [ [PDF]

Fiscal Unions Redux
Patrick J. Kehoe and and Elena Pastorino
Paper No CFM-DP2017-12, March 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco
Paper No CFM-DP2017-11, March 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Political Specialization
Bernardo Guimaraes and Kevin Sheedy
Paper No CFM-DP2017-10, February 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation
Riccardo Masolo and Francesca Monti
Paper No CFM-DP2017-09, February 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Foreign Booms, Domestic Busts: The Global Dimension of Banking Crises
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Fernando Eguren Martin and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2017-08, February 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy
Andrew Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens and Morten O. Ravn
Paper No CFM-DP2017-07, February 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Mystery of TFP
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2017-06, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies
André Diniz and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No CFM-DP2017-05, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Role of Gender in Employment Polarization
Fabio Cerina, Alessio Moro and Michelle Petersen Rendall
Paper No CFM-DP2017-04, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?
Bernardo Guimaraes and Carlos Eduardo Ladeira
Paper No CFM-DP2017-03, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election
Augusto Carvalho and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No CFM-DP2017-02, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2017-01, January 2017
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2016

The Effect of Foreign Investors on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from the UK
Filipa Sá
Paper No CFM-DP2016-39, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy in a Debt Crisis
Neele Balke and Morten Ravn
Paper No CFM-DP2016-38, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Aggregate Hiring and the Value of Jobs Along the Business Cycle
Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2016-37, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Foreign Booms, Domestic Busts: The Global Dimension of Banking Crises
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Fernando Eguren Martin and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2016-36, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

History Dependence in the Housing Market
Philippe Bracke and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2016-35, November 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank's Payment on Reserves
Robert E. Hall and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2016-34, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Macroeconomic Fluctuations with HANK &
SAM: An Analytical Approach
Morten O. Ravn and Vincent Sterk
Paper No CFM-DP2016-33, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Impact of Taxes on Income Mobility
Mario Alloza
Paper No CFM-DP2016-32, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or
During  Recessions?
Mario Alloza
Paper No CFM-DP2016-31, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of
Financial Crises on Output
Maarten de Ridder
Paper No CFM-DP2016-30, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Returns to on-the-job search and the dispersion of wages
Axel Gottfries and Coen Teulings
Paper No CFM-DP2016-29, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Secular Stagnation, Rational Bubbles, and Fiscal Policy
Coen N. Teulings
Paper No CFM-DP2016-28, October 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

ESBies: Safety in the tranches
Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sam Langfield, Marco Pagano, Ricardo Reis, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Dimitri Vayanos
Paper No CFM-DP2016-27, September 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Funding Quantitative Easing to Target Inflation
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2016-26, September 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Nominal rigidities in debt and product markets
Carlos Garriga, Finn E. Kydland and Roman Sustek
Paper No CFM-DP2016-25, August 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Financial Market Imperfections and Labour Market Outcomes
Alireza Sepahsalari
Paper No CFM-DP2016-24, August 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Macroeconomic Shock with the Highest Price of Risk
Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2016-23, August 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Finance and Synchronization
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Jean Imbs and Jumana Saleheen
Paper No CFM-DP2016-22, August 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Decision to Move House and Aggregate Housing-Market Dynamics
L. Rachel Ngai and Kevin Sheedy
Paper No CFM-DP2016-21, July 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

QE in the Future: the central bank’s balance sheet in a financial crisis
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2016-20, July 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systemically Fooled?
Ran Spiegler
Paper No CFM-DP2016-19, June 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Optimal Automatic Stabilizers
Alisdair McKay and Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2016-18, June 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies
Markus K. Brunnermeier, Luis Garicano, Philip R. Lane, Marco Pagano, Ricardo Reis, Tano Santos, David Thesmar, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Dimitri Vayanosy
Paper No CFM-DP2016-17, June 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Matching Workers
Espen R. Moen and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2016-16, June 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Job Displacement Risk and Severance Pay
Giulio Fella and Marco Cozzi
Paper No CFM-DP2016-15, May 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Parents, Schools and Human Capital Differences across Countries
Marta De Philippis and Federico Rossi
Paper No CFM-DP2016-14, May 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino
Paper No CFM-DP2016-13, May 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Gregory Thwaites and Alejandro Vicondoa
Paper No CFM-DP2016-12, April 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Theory of Unconventional Monetary Policy
Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk
Paper No CFM-DP2016-11, April 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Firms' Precautionary Savings and Employment During a Credit Crisis
Davide Melcangi
Paper No CFM-DP2016-10, March 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks
Ching-Wai Chiu, Haroon Mumtaz and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2016-09, March 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

On the Mechanics of New Keynesian Models
Peter Rupert and Roman Sustek
Paper No CFM-DP2016-08, February 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Residential Collateral Channel
Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis and Gabor Pinter
Paper No CFM-DP2016-07, February 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Stagnation Traps
Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro
Paper No CFM-DP2016-06, February 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate
Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith
Paper No CFM-DP2016-05, February 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth
Juan Antolin-Diaz, Thomas Drechsel and Ivan Petrella
Paper No CFM-DP2016-04, January 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Dark Corners of the Labor Market
Vincent Sterk
Paper No CFM-DP2016-03, January 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates
Raffaella Giacomini, Vasiliki Skreta and Javier Turen
Paper No CFM-DP2016-02, January 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Asymmetric Inflation Expectations, Downward Rigidity of Wages and Asymmetric Business Cycles
David Rezza Baqaee
Paper No CFM-DP2016-01, January 2016
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

2015

Shocking Language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication
Stephen Hansen and Michael McMahon
Paper No CFM-DP2015-37, December 2015
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Exact Present Solution with Consistent Future Approximation: A gridless algorithm to stochastic dynamic models
Wouter den Haan, Michal Kobielarz, and Pontus Rendahl
Paper No CFM-DP2015-36, December 2015
Non-Technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Looking for a success in the euro crisis adjustment programs: the case of Portugal
Ricardo Reis
Paper No CFM-DP2015-35, November 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

Endogenous Market Making and Network Formation
Briana Chang and Shengxing Zhang
Paper No CFM-DP2015-34, November 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

An Economic Analysis of Pension Tax Proposals
Angus Armstrong, Philip Davis and Monique Ebell
Paper No CFM-DP2015-33, November 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Persistence of a Banking Crisis
Kilian Huber
Paper No CFM-DP2015-32, November 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Unions in a Frictional Labor Market
Leena Rudanko and Per Krusell
Paper No CFM-DP2015-31, November 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle
Per Krusell, Toshihiko Mukoyama, Richard Rogerson and Ayşegűl Şahin
Paper No CFM-DP2015-30, November 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Energy-Saving Technical Change
John Hassler, Per Krusell and Conny Olovsson
Paper No CFM-DP2015-29, November 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Impact of Contract Enforcement Costs on Outsourcing and Aggregate Productivity
Johannes Boehm
Paper No CFM-DP2015-28, November 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Globalization and Synchronization of Innovation Cycles
Kiminori Matsuyama, Iryna Sushko and Laura Gardini
Paper No CFM-DP2015-27, October 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

A Positive Theory of Tax Reform
Ethan Ilzetzki
Paper No CFM-DP2015-26, October 2015
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Banks that Said No: Banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the UK
Jeremy Franklin, May Rostom and Gregory Thwaites
Paper No CFM-DP2015-25, October 2015
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Space-Time (In)Consistency in the National Accounts: Causes and cures
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No CFM-DP2015-24, October 2015
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QE and the Bank Lending Channel in the United Kingdom
Nick Butt, Rohan Churm, Michael McMahon, Arpad Morotz and Jochen Schanz
Paper No CFM-DP2015-23, October 2015
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The Fundamental Nature of HARA Utility
Gadi S. Perets and Eran Yashiv
Paper No CFM-DP2015-22, September 2015
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Unemployment (Fears) and Deflationary Spirals
Wouter Den Haan, Pontus Rendahl, and Markus Riegler
Paper No CFM-DP2015-21, September 2015
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Predictable Recoveries
Xiaoming Cai, Wouter Den Haan, and Jonathan Pinder
Paper No CFM-DP2015-20, September 2015
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The Home Market Effect and Patterns of Trade Between Rich and Poor Countries
Kiminori Matsuyama
Paper No CFM-DP2015-19, August 2015
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Diversification through Trade
Francesco Caselli, Miklos Koren, Milan Lisicky and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No CFM-DP2015-18, August 2015.
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Experience-biased Technical Change
Francesco Caselli
Paper No CFM-DP2015-17, July 2015.
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Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The monetary dimensions of comparative advantage
Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti
Paper No CFM-DP2015-16, July 2015
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The Optimal Use of Government Purchases for Macroeconomic Stabilization
Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez
Paper No CFM-DP2015-15, June 2015
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What Moves International Stock and Bond Markets?
Gino Cenedese and Enrico Mallucci
Paper No CFM-DP2015-14, June 2015
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Communal Land and Agricultural Productivity
Charles Gottlieb and Jan Grobovšek
Paper No CFM-DP2015-13, June 2015
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Optimal Capital Controls and Real Exchange Rate Policies: A pecuniary externality perspective
Gianluca Benigno, Huigang Chen, Christopher Otrok, Alessandro Reducci and Eric R. Young
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-12, May 2015
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Large Capital Inflows, Sectoral Allocation, and Economic Performance
Gianluca Benigno, Nathan Converse and Luca Fornaro
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-11, May 2015
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Identifying Noise Shocks: a VAR with data revisions
Riccardo M. Masolo and Alessia Paccagnini
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-10, May 2015
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Towards a New Keynesian Theory of the Price Level
John Barrdear
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-09, May 2015
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Time-Consistent Consumption Taxation
Sarolta Laczó and Raffaele Rossi
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-08, April 2015
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House Price and Job Losses
Gabor Pinter
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-07, March 2015
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Monetary Policy with Ambiguity Averse Agents
Riccardo M. Masolo  and Francesca Monti
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-06, March 2015
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Can a Data-rich Environment Help Identify the Sources of Model Misspecification?
Francesca Monti
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-05, February 2015
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Time-dependent or State-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation episode
Celio Feltrin and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-04, February 2015
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Demand Expectations and the Timing of Stimulus Policies
Bernardo Guimaraes and Caio Machado
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-03, January 2015
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Capital Values and Job Values
Eran Yashiv
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-02, January 2015
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Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions
Morten O. Ravn and Vincent Sterk 
Paper No. CFM-DP2015-01, January 2015
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2014

The Curse of Inflation
Erik Eyster, Kristof Madarasz and Pascal Michaillat
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-30, December 2014
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Estimating the Effects of Forward Guidance in Rational Expectations Models
Richard Harrison
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-29, November 2014
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Why are Real Interest Rates so Low? Secular Stagnation and the Relative Price of Investment Goods
Gregory Thwaites
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-28, October 2014
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Financial Disruption as a Cost of Sovereign Default: a quantitative assessment
Andre Diniz and Bernardo Guimaraes
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-27, September 2014
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A Model of the Confidence Channel of Fiscal Policy
Bernardo Guimaraes, Caio Machado and Marcel Ribeiro
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-26, September 2014
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An Economical Business-Cycle Model 
Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez 
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-25, September 2014
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling
Debt Crises

Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Dedola 
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-24, August 2014
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Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle
Finn E. Kydland, Peter Rupert and Roman Sustek
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-23, August 2014
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Transitory Interest-rate Pegs under Imperfect Credibility
Alex Haberis, Richard Harrison and Matt Waldron
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-22, August 2014
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The Latin American Efficiency Gap
Francesco Caselli
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-21, July 2014
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The Cost of Human Capital Depreciation during Unemployment
Lien Laureys
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-20, July 2014
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Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment 
Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez 
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-19, July 2014
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Shake Me the Money!
Francesco Porcelli and Riccardo Trezzi
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-18, July 2014
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Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations
Ran Spiegler
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-17, July 2014
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Exploiting the Monthly Data-flow in Structural Forecasting
Domenico Giannone, Francesca Monti and Lucrezia Reichlin
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-16, June 2014
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Optimal Monetary Policy in the Presence of Human Capital Depreciation during Unemployment
Lien Laureys
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-15, June 2014
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Managing Intrinsic Motivation in a Long-Run Relationship
Kfir Eliaz and Ran Spiegler
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-14, June 2014
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Government Spending Shocks, Wealth Effects and Distortionary Taxes
James Cloyne
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-13, June 2014
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Issues in the Design of Fiscal Policy Rules 
Jonathan Portes and Simon Wren-Lewis 
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-12, June 2014
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Transparency and Deliberation within the FOMC: a computational linguistics approach
Stephen Hansen, Michael McMahon and Andrea Prat
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-11, June 2014
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A Procedure for Combining Zero and Sign Restrictions in a VAR-Identification Scheme
Alex Haberis and Andrej Sokol
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-10, June 2014
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Peering into the Mist: Social learning over an opaque observation network
John Barrdear
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-09, June 2014
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Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries
Samuel Wills
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-08, June 2014 
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Productivity Dynamics in the Great Stagnation: Evidence from British businesses
Rebecca Riley, Chiara Rosazza Bondibene and Garry Young
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-07, June 2014
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] 

Systemic Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic implications in the Euro Area
Saleem Bahaj
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-06, May 2014
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Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis
Pontus Rendahl
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-05, May 2014
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Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy
L. Rachel Ngai and Barbara Petrongolo
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-04, May 2014
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The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle
Petr Sedlacek and Vincent Sterk
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-03, February 2014
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Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions for Business Cycles
Wouter Den Haan
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-02, January 2014
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Modelling the Service Sector
Philip King and Stephen Millard
Paper No. CFM-DP2014-01, January 2014
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2013

Medium and Long Run Prospects for UK Growth in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis
Nicholas Oulton
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-07, December 2013
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Mortgages and Monetary Policy
Carlos Garriga, Finn E. Kydland and Roman Šustek
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-06, December 2013
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

The Transmission of Monetary Policy Operations through Redistributions and Durable Purchases
Vincent Sterk and Silvana Tenreyro
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-05, December 2013
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Did the Job Ladder Fail After the Great Recession?
Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-04, November 2013
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Optimal Unemployment Insurance over the Business Cycle
Camille Landais, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-03, October 2013
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Scotland’s Currency Options
Angus Armstrong, Monique Ebell
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-02, October 2013
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF]

Pushing on a String: US monetary policy is less powerful in recessions
Silvana Tenreyro, Gregory Thwaites
Paper No. CFM-DP2013-01, October 2013
Non-technical Summary [PDF] Full Paper [PDF] Press Release [PDF]