Papers and chapters

[113] Smith, L.A., Du, H.L. and Higgins, S. (2020) Designing multi-model applications with surrogate forecast systems. Monthly Weather Review. ISSN 0027-0644.

[112] Thompson, E.L. and Smith, L.A. (2019) Escape from model-land. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2019-23, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

[111] Berger, J.O. and Smith, L.A. (2019) 'On the statistical formalism of uncertainty quantification,' Annual Review of Statistics and its Application, 6. 3.1-3.28. ISSN 2326-8298.

[110] Theocharis, Z., Smith, L.A. and Harvey, N. (2018) 'The influence of graphical format on judgmental forecasting accuracy: Lines versus points,' Futures Foresight Sci. 2018; e7DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.7.

[109] Jarman, A.S. and Smith, L.A. (2018) 'Quantifying the predictability of a predictand: demonstrating the diverse roles of serial dependence in the estimation of forecast skill', Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1002/qj3384.

[108] Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2017) 'Multimodel cross pollination in time', Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol. 353-4, pp.31-38. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2017.06.001. 

[107] Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2017) 'Rising above chaotic likelihoods', SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, (5) 246-258. DOI: 10.1137/140988784.

[106] Machete, R.L. and Smith, L.A. (2016) 'Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems', Tellus A, 68, 28393. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.28393.

[105] Smith, L.A. (2016) 'Integrating information, misinformation and desire: improved weather-risk management for the energy sector', in Aston, P.J., Mulholland, A.J. and Tant, K.M.M. (ed.) UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics,  289-296. Springer International Publishing Switzerland. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_37.

[104] Thorne, C., Lawson, E.C., Ozawa, C., Hamlin, S.L. and Smith, L.A. (2015) 'Overcoming uncertainty and lack of confidence as barriers to wide adoption of Blue-Green infrastructure for urban flood risk management', Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2015. DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12218.

[103] Smith, L.A., Suckling, E.B., Thompson, E.L., Maynard, T. and Du, H. (2015) 'Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation', Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1430-2.

[102] Frigg, R., Smith, L.A. and Stainforth, D.A. (2015) 'An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09', Synthese. DOI: 10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8.

[101] Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., Min, E., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Petersen, A.C., Stainforth, D.A., Vasileiadou, E. and Smith, L.A. (2015) 'Tales of future weather', Nature Climate Change, 5, 107-113. DOI:10.1038/NClimate2450.

[100] Lawson, E., Thorne, C., Ahilan, S., Allen, D., Arthur, S., Everett, G., Fenner, R., Glenis, V., Guan, D., Hoang, L., Kilsby, C., Lamond, J., Mant, J., Maskrey, S., Mount, N., Sleigh, A., Smith, L.A. and Wright, N.(2014) Delivering and evaluating the multiple flood risk benefits in Blue-Green cities: an interdisciplinary approach. Flood Recovery Innovation and Response, 2014 Poznan, Poland. WIT Press. DOI: 10.10.2495/FRIAR140101.

[99] Smith, L.A., Du, H., Suckling, E.B. and Niehoerster, F. (2014) ‘Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts’, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI:10.1002/qj.2403.

[98] Bradley, S., Frigg, R., Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2014) 'Model error and ensemble forecasting: a cautionary tale', in Guichun C. Guo and Chuang Liu (ed.) Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science, Singapore: World Scientific 2014, 58-66.

[97] Smith, L.A. and Petersen, A.C. (2014) 'Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy', in Boumans, M., Hon, G. and Petersen, A.C. (ed.) Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice, London: Pickering & Chatto.

[96] Frigg, R., Bradley, S., Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2014) 'Laplace's Demon and the adventures of his apprentices', Philosophy of Science, 81 (1) (January 2014), 31-59. DOI: 10.1086/674416.

[95] Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2014) 'Pseudo-orbit data assimilation part I: the perfect model scenario', Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (2), 469-482. ISSN 0022-4928. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-032.1.

[94] Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2014) 'Pseudo-orbit data assimilation part II: assimilation with imperfect models', Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (2), 483-495. ISSN 0022-4928. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-033.1. 

[93] Lopez, A., Smith, L.A. and Suckling, E.B. (2014) 'Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support', Climatic Change. DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y. Supplementary material.

[92] Suckling, E.B. and Smith, L.A. (2013) 'An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models'Journal of Climate, 26 (23): 9334-9347. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1. Supplementary material.

[91] Frigg, R., Bradley, S., Machete, R.L. and Smith, L.A. (2013) 'Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill', in Anderson, H., Dieks, D., Wheeler, G., Gonzalez, W. and Uebel, T. (ed.) New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. Berlin and New York: Springer, Vol. 4, 479-491. DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-5845-2_39.

[90] Frigg, R., Smith, L.A. and Stainforth, D.A. (2013) 'The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09', Philosophy of Science, 80 (5), 886-897. DOI: 10.1086/673892.

[89] Glendinning, P. and Smith, L.A. (2013) 'Lacunarity and period-doubling', Dynamical Systems, 28 (1), 111-121. DOI: 10.1080/14689367.2012.755496.

[88] Smith, L.A. and Stainforth, D.A. (13 September 2012) 'Clarify the limits of climate models', in Nature, Correspondence, Vol. 489. DOI: 10.1038/489208a.

[87] Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2012) 'Parameter estimation through ignorance', Physical Review E 86, 016213. DOI:10.1103/PhyRevE.86.016213.

[86] Rowlands, D.J., Frame, D.J., Ackerley, D., Aina, T., Booth, B.B.B., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Forest, C.E., Grandey, B.S.,  Gryspeerdt, E., Highwood, E.J.,  Ingram, W.J., Knight, S., Lopez, A., Massey, N., McNamara, F., Meinshausen, N., Piani, C., Rosier, S.M., Sanderson, B.M., Smith, L.A., Stone, D.A., Thurston, M., Yamazaki, K., Yamazaki, Y.H. and Allen, M.R. (2012) 'Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble.' Nature Geoscience, Issue 5: 256-260. DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1430.

[85] Bevan, K., Buytaert, W. and Smith, L.A. (2012) 'On virtual observatories and modelled realities (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable)', Hydrol. Process., 26 (12): 1905–1908. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9261.

[84] Smith, L.A. and Stern, N. (2011) 'Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 369, 1-24. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0149.

[83] Khare, S. and Smith, L.A. (2011) 'Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states', Monthly Weather Review, 139 (7), 2080-2097. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3186.1.

[82] Ghil, M, Read, P. and Smith, L.A. (2010) 'Geophysical flows as dynamical systems: the influence of Hide's experiments', Astronomy & Geophysics, 51: 4.28-4.35. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-4004.2010.51428.x.

[81] Oreskes, N., Stainforth, D.A., and Smith, L.A. (2010) 'Adaptation to Global Warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know?', Philosophy of Science, 77 (5) (December 2010): 1012-1028. DOI: 10.1086/657428.

[80] Smith, L.A., Cuéllar, M.C., Du, H. and Judd, K. (2010) 'Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models', Physics Letters A, 374, 2618-2623. DOI: 10.1016/j.physleta.2010.04.032.

[79] Hagedorn, R. and Smith, L.A. (2009) 'Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette,' Meteorological Applications 16 (2): 143-155. DOI: 10.1002/met.92. Abstract.

[78] Judd, K., Reynolds, C.A., Smith, L.A. and Rosmond, T.E. (2008) 'The geometry of model error', Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65 (6): 1749-1772. DOI: 10.1175/2007JAS2327.1. Abstract.

[77] Bröcker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2008) 'From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions', Tellus A, 60 (4): 663. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x. Abstract.

[76] Judd, K., Smith, L.A. and Weisheimer, A. (2007) 'How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation', Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626): 1309-1325. DOI: 10.1002/qj.000.

[75] Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Tredger, E.R. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161. DOI: 10/1098/rsta.2007.2074. Abstract.

[74] Bröcker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper', Weather and Forecasting, 22 (2): 382-388. DOI: 10.1175/WAF966.1. Abstract.

[73] Bröcker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams', Weather and Forecasting, 22(3): 651-661. DOI: 10.1175/WAF993.1. Abstract.

[72] Smith, L.A. (2006) 'Predictability past predictability present', in Palmer, T. and Hagedorn, R. (ed.) Predictability of Weather and Climate,  Chapter 9, Cambridge, UK. Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511617652.010.

[71] Guerrero, A. and Smith, L.A. (2005) 'A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence', Physics Letters A, 355 (2-4): 619-632. SCI 1. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.03.002. Abstract.

[70] Roulston, M.S., Ellepola, J. and Smith, L.A. (2005) 'Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models', Ocean Engineering, 32 (14-15): 1841-1863. DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2004.11.012. Abstract.

[69] Stainforth, D.A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L.A., Spicer, R.A., Thorpe, A.J., Webb, M.J. and Allen, M.R. (2005) 'Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases', Nature, 433 (7024): 403-406.  DOI: 10.1038/nature03301. Abstract.

[68] Weisheimer, A., Smith, L.A. and Judd, K. (2005) 'A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts', Tellus, 57 (3) 265-279 MAY. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00106.x. Abstract.

[67] Golobic, I., Pavlovic, E., von Hardenberg, J., Berry, M., Nelson, R.A., Kenning, D.B.R. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data', Trans IChemE, Part A, Feb 2004, Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82 (A), 1-10. Abstract.

[66] Judd, K. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario', Physica D, 196: 224-242. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2004.03.020. Abstract.

[65] Altalo, M.G. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk', Environmental Finance, October 2004, 20: 8-9. Abstract.

[64] Kwasniok, F. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams', Physical Review Letters, 92 (16). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.164101. Abstract.

[63] McSharry, P.E. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy', Physica D, 192: 1-22. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2004.01.003. Abstract.

[62] Smith, L.A. and Hansen, J.A. (2004) 'Extending the limits of forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree', Monthly Weather Review, 132 (6): 1522-1528. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1522ETLOEF>2.0.CO;2. Abstract.

[61] Roulston, M.S. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios', Weather and Forecasting, 19 (2): 391-397. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0319:TBWCWR>2.0.CO;2. Abstract.

[60] Judd, K., Smith, L.A. and Weisheimer, A. (2004) 'Gradient free descent: shadowing and state estimation using limited derivative information', Physica D, 190 (3-4): 153-166. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2003.10.011. Abstract.

[59] Orrell, D. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram', Int. J. Bif Chaos, 13 (10): 3015-3027. DOI: 10.1142/SO218127403008387. Abstract.

[58] Guerrero, A. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension', Physics Letters A, 318 373-379. DOI: 10.1016/j.physleta.2003.09.023. Abstract.

[57] McSharry, P.E., Smith, L.A. and Tarassenko, L. (2003) 'Prediction of epileptic seizures: Are non-linear methods relevant?', Nature Medicine, 9 (3): 241-242. DOI:10.1038/nm0303-241.

[56] Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Predictability past predictability present', In 2002 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, 219-242. ECMWF, Reading, UK.

[55] McSharry, P.E., Smith, L.A. and Tarassenko, L. (2003) 'Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method', IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (5): 628-633. DOI: 10.1109/TBME.2003.810688. Abstract.

[54] Roulston, M.S. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles', Tellus 55 A, 16-30. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2003.201378.x. Abstract.

[53] McSharry, P.E., Clifford, G., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals', IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (3): 289-294. DOI: 10.1109/TBME.2003.808805. Abstract.

[52] Roulston, M.S., Kaplan, D.T., Hardenberg, J. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Using medium range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production', Renewable Energy, 29 (4) April 585-602. DOI: 10.1016/SO960-1481(02)00054-X. Abstract.

[51] Roulston, M.S. and Smith, L.A. (2002) 'Weather and Seasonal Forecasting', in Dischel, R.S. (ed.) Climate Risk and the Weather Market, 115-126, Risk Books, London.

[50] McSharry, P.E., Clifford, G., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, L.A. (2002) 'A Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours', Computers in Cardiology, 29: 225-228. DOI: 10.1109/CIC.2002.1166748. Abstract.

[49] McSharry, P.E., He, T., Smith, L.A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) 'Linear and nonlinear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electroencephalogram recordings', Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, 40 (4): 447-461. DOI: 10.1007/BF02345078. Abstract.

[48] von Hardenberg, J., Kono, T., Kenning, D.B.R., McSharry, P.E. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Identification of nucleation site interactions', International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25 (2), 298-304. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheatfluidflow.2003.11.015. Abstract.

[47] Roulston, M.S. and Smith, L.A. (2002) 'Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory', Monthly Weather Review, 130 6: 1653-1660. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<1653:EPFUIT>2.0.CO;2. Abstract.

[46] Smith, L.A. (2002) 'What might we learn from climate forecasts?', Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA, 4 (99): 2487-2492. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.012580599. Abstract.

[45] Orrell, D., Smith, L.A., Palmer, T. and Barkmeijer, J. (2001) 'Model error in weather forecasting', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 8: 357-371. DOI: 10.5194/npg-8-357-2001. Abstract.

[44] Hansen, J.A. and Smith, L.A. (2001) 'Probabilistic noise reduction,' Tellus, 53 A (5): 585-598. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2001.00118.x. Abstract.

[43] Gilmour, I., Smith, L.A. and  Buizza, R. (2001) 'Linear regime duration: Is 24 Hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting?', Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58 (22): 3525-3539. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<3525:LRDIHA>2.0.CO;2. Abstract.

[42] Judd, K. and Smith, L.A. (2001) 'Indistinguishable States I: the perfect model scenario', Physica D, 151: 125-141. DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2789(01)00225-1. Abstract.

[41] McSharry, P.E., Ellepola, J.H., von Hardenberg, J., Smith, L.A., Kenning, D.B.R. and Judd, K. (2002) 'Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions (NEFs)', International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 45 (2): 237-253. DOI: 10.1016/S0017-9310(01)00152-1. Abstract.

[40] Smith, L.A. (2000) 'Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems', in Mees, A.I. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, Boston: Birkhauser, 31-64. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4612-0177.9_2. Abstract.

[39] Hansen, J.A. and Smith, L.A. (2000) 'The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations', Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 57 (17): 2859-2871. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<2859:TROOCI>2.0.CO;2. Abstract.

[38] Smith, L.A. (2000) 'Limits to predictability in 2000 and 2100', in Haykin, S. (ed.) Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, (IEEE, Piscataway), 129-134. (Figure 1)Abstract.

[37] Ziehmann, C., Smith, L.A. and Kurths, J. (2000) 'Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability', Physics Letters A, 271 (4): 237-251. DOI: 10.1016/S0375-9601(00)00336-4. Abstract.

[36] McSharry, P. and Smith, L.A. (1999) 'Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood', Physical Review Letters, 83 (21): 4285-4288. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.83.4285. Abstract.

[35] Smith, L.A., Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K. (1999) 'Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems', Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125: 2855-2886. DOI: 10.1002/qj.49712556005. Abstract.

[34] Ziehmann, C., Smith, L.A. and Kurths, J. (1999) 'The Bootstrap and Lyapunov Exponents in Deterministic Chaos', Physica D, 126 (1-2): 49-59. DOI: 10.1016/SO167-2789(98)00256-5. Abstract.

[33] McSharry, P. and Smith, L.A. (1998) 'Just Do It. Reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting', in Suykens, J.A.K. and Vandewalle, J. (ed.) International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications with Time-Series Prediction Competition, 106-111, Leuven, K.U. Belgium, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Abstract.

[32] Smith, L.A. and Gilmour, I. (1998) 'Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation'. In the Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, 1997. ECMWF, Reading, UK.

[31] Smith, L.A. (1997) 'The maintenance of uncertainty,' in Proc International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", Course CXXXIII, 177-246, Societ'a Italiana di Fisica, Bologna, Italy.

[30] Allen, M.R. and Smith, L.A. (1997) 'Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis', Physics Letters A, 234 (6): 419-428. DOI: 10.1016/S0375-9601(97)00559-8. Abstract.

[29] Gilmour, I. and Smith, L.A. (1997) 'Enlightenment in shadows', in Kadtke, J.B. and Bulsara, A., (ed.) Applied nonlinear dynamics and stochastic systems near the millennium, 335-340., AIP, New York. DOI: 10.1063/1.54200. Abstract.

[28] Paparella, F., Provenzale, A., Smith, L.A., Taricco, C. and Vio, R. (1997) 'Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes', Physics Letters A, 235 (3): 233-240. DOI: 10.1016/SO375-9601(97)00607-5. Abstract.

[27] Allen, M.R. and Smith, L.A. (1996) 'Monte Carlo SSA: Detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of coloured noise', Journal of Climate, 9 (12): 3373-3404. Part 3. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<3373:MCSDIO>2.0.CO;2.

[26] Smith, L.A. (1995) 'Accountability and error in ensemble forecasting', In 1995 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability. Vol. 1, 351-368. ECMWF, Reading. Abstract.

[25] Theiler, J. and Smith, L.A. (1995) 'Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates', Physical Review E, 51 (4): 3738-3741. Part B. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.51.3738. Abstract.

[24] Smith, L.A. (1995) 'Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic', in Tong, H. (ed.) Chaos and Forecasting, 87-108. World Scientific, London. (Note this is an extended version of [23] below).

[23] Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition,' Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. Lond. A, 348 (1688): 371-381. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.1994.0097.

[22] Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Visualising predictability with chaotic ensembles', in Luk, F.T. (ed.) Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures and Implementations, SPIE Vol. 2296: 293-304. Bellingham, WA.

[21] Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C. Fraedrich, K. and Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeits-experiment im Lorenz-Modell', Meteorologische Zeitschrift N.F., 14.

[20] Allen, M.R. and Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability', Geophysical Research Letters, 21 (10): 883-886. DOI: 10.1029/94GL00978.

[19] Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamical systems analysis', in Beven, K., Chatwin, P.C. and Millbank, J.H. (ed.) Mixing and Transport in the Environment, 383-399, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, London.

[18] Smith, L.A. (1993) 'Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply chaos?', in Weigend, A. and Gersenfeld, N. (ed.) Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past, 323-344,  SFI Series in Complexity XV, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. DOI:

[17] Smith, L.A. (1992) 'Identification and prediction of low-dimensional dynamics', Physica D, 58 (1-4): 50-76. DOI: 10.1016/0167-2789(92)90101-R.

[16] Allen, M.R. Read, P.L. and Smith, L.A. (1992) 'Temperature time-series?', Nature, 355 (6362): 686. DOI: 10.1038/355686a0.

[15] Provenzale, A., Smith, L.A., Vio, R. and Murante, G. (1992) 'Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series', Physica D, 58 (1-4): 31-49. DOI: 10.1016/0167-2789(92)90100-2. Abstract.

[14] Smith, L.A. (1991) 'Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems', in Atmanspacher, H. et al (ed.) Information Dynamics , 97-102, NATO ASI Series B, Vol. 256, Plenum Press, New York. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4899-2305-9. Abstract.

[13] Smith, L.A., Godfrey, K., Fox, P. and Warwick, K. (1991) 'A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes', Control 91, IEE Publication 332, 1: 1062-1067.

[12] Thieberger, R., Spiegel, E.A. and Smith, L.A. (1990) 'The dimensions of cosmic fractals', in Krasner, S. (ed.) The Ubiquity of Chaos, 197-217. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington DC. 

[11] Smith, L.A. (1989) 'Quantifying chaos through predictive flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits', in Abraham, N. and Albino, A. (ed.) Quantitative Measures of Complexity, 359-366, NATO ASI Series B, Vol. 208, Plenum Press, New York. 

[10] Smith, L.A. (1988) 'Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations', Physics Letters A, 133 (6): 283-288. DOI: 10.1016/0375-9601(86)90445-8.

[9] Smith, L.A. (1987) Lacunarity and Chaos in Nature, PhD Thesis, 263, Columbia University in the City of New York.

[8] Smith, L.A. and Spiegel, E.A. (1987) 'Strange accumulators, in chaos in astrophysics', Annals of the New York Academy of Science, 497: 61-65. DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.1987.tb48711.x.

[7] Smith, L.A., Fournier, J.D. and Spiegel, E.A. (1986) 'Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence', Physics Letters 114, A (8-9): 465-468. DOI: 10.1016/0375-9601 (86) 90695.X.

[6] Smith, L.A. and Spiegel, E.A. (1985) 'Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows', Lect. Notes in Phys., 230: 306-318. DOI: 10.1007/3-540-15644-5_25.

[5] Smith, L.A. (1984) 'Particulate dispersal in a time dependent flow', in Mellor, F.K. (ed.) Dynamic Differentiation,  Woods Hole Institute Technical Report WHOI-84-44, Woods Hole, MA.

[4] Green, A.E.S., Cross, K. and Smith, L.A. (1980) 'Improved characterization of ultraviolet skylight', Photochemistry and Photobiology, 31 (1): 59-65. DOI: 10/1111/j.1751-1097.1980.tb03683.x.


Leonard Smith lynyrdsmyth

RT @ClimateOfGavin: Tl;dr: No. Can we predict global warming using only statistics? - The Metamodel Blog…

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Leonard Smith lynyrdsmyth

@jbakcoleman While I agree strongly we want to own the uncertainty(s), I believe we can rarely, if ever, make it un……

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