Raphael Calel

Visiting Fellow

Raphael is a Ciriacy-Wantrup Postdoctoral Fellow at the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley.


Raphael has a PhD in Environmental Economics from the LSE. He has previously studied economics at the University of Cambridge and UCL.

Research interests

  • Economic effects of the EU Emissions Trading System;
  • Climate change policy and innovation;
  • Uncertainty in climate forecasts.


Working paper  18 May, 2018

Adopt or innovate: Understanding technological responses to cap-and-trade

This paper presents new evidence that the EU Emissions Trading System may have encouraged innovation rather than simply encouraging polluters to adopt existing abatement technologies. read more »


Research article  3 November, 2016

On the physics of three integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are the main tools for combining physical and economic analyses to develop and assess climate change policy. Policy makers have relied heavily on three IAMs in … read more »

Research article  4 March, 2016

Environmental Policy and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from the European Carbon Market

This paper investigates the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on technological change, exploiting installations level inclusion criteria to estimate the System’s causal impact on firms’ … read more »


Research article  12 October, 2013

Who will win the green race? In search of environmental competitiveness and innovation

Fankhauser, Samuel, Bowen, Alex, Calel, Raphael, Dechezlepretre, Antoine, Grover, David, Rydge, James and Sato, Misato (2013) Who will win the green race? In search of environmental competitiveness and innovation. Global … read more »

Research article  21 September, 2013

Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming

It has recently been highlighted that the economic value of climate change mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming. This insight has been obtained through a … read more »

Research article  20 January, 2013

Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?

Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan … read more »


Working paper  1 November, 2012

Who will win the green race? In search of environmental competitiveness and innovation

As the world considers greener forms of economic growth, countries and sectors are beginning to position themselves for the emerging green economy. This paper combines patent … read more »

Research article  20 June, 2012

Improving cost-efficiency of conservation auctions with joint bidding

Most current models of conservation auctions are incompatible with the assessment that there are environmental externalities and synergies between bidders. Yet, conservation auctions are usually set up for the … read more »

Working paper  1 March, 2012

Environmental policy and directed technological change: evidence from the European carbon market

This paper was updated in February 2013 This paper investigates the impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)on technological change. We exploit installations-level inclusion … read more »


Working paper  10 August, 2011

Market-based instruments and technology choices: a synthesis

Market-based instruments are widely used to encourage innovation and investment in cleaner technologies. Using a simple analytical framework and graphical representations, this paper provides a theoretical … read more »

Working paper  1 July, 2011

Perverse incentives under the CDM: a comment

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) provides some basic safeguards to ensure that HFC-23 reductions are additional, primarily aimed at establishing a realistic baseline scenario for HFC-23 … read more »

Working paper  1 July, 2011

Climate change and carbon markets: a panoramic history

International carbon markets have grown quickly in recent years, but have also experienced serious problems and faced harsh criticism. This paper looks at the history of … read more »


Working paper  2 July, 2010

Auctioning conservation contracts in the presence of externalities

Current models of conservation auctions do not permit for the presence of environmental externalities and synergies between bidders. Yet, conservation auctions are usually set up for … read more »

More in research publications


Commentary  1 August, 2013

Permits to pollute can be bought too cheaply

When the carbon price collapsed to below €3 in April this year, EU policymakers sought to prop up carbon prices by a deal that would delay the release of carbon … read more »

Commentary  21 February, 2013

Has the EU ETS induced low-carbon innovation?

The EU ETS is the main instrument of European climate policy, and many policymakers envisage it as a driving force of the EU’s transition to a low-carbon economy. By putting … read more »

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