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David Stainforth
Principal Research Fellow
Background
David is a physicist by training and has many years’ experience of climate modelling.
While a researcher at Oxford University, he co-founded and was chief scientist of the climateprediction.net project, the world’s largest climate modelling experiment.
David has been both a NERC Research Fellow and a Tyndall Research Fellow at Oxford University.
Research interests
- How we can extract robust and useful information about future climate, and climate related phenomena, from modelling experiments;
- Issues of how to design climate modelling experiments and how to link climate science to real-world decision making in such a way as to be of value to industry, policymakers and wider society.
2015
Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review
The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may … read more »
Limits to the quantification of local climate change
We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, … read more »
Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections
Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty … read more »
An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09
The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of … read more »
2014
Climate projection: Testing climate assumptions
Stainforth, D. A. In: Nature Climate Change (9th March 2014).
Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate
We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data. read more »
2013
The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09
Frigg, R., L.A. Smith, D. A. Stainforth. In: Philosophy of Science, December 2013.
Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming
It has recently been highlighted that the economic value of climate change mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming. This insight has been obtained through a … read more »
Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions
Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present … read more »
On predicting climate under climate change
Can today’s global climate model ensembles characterize the 21st century climate in their own ‘model-worlds’? This question is at the heart of how we design and interpret climate model … read more »
On estimating local long-term climate trends
Climate sensitivity is commonly taken to refer to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Evaluating this … read more »
Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?
Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan … read more »
2010
Probabilistic regional and seasonal predictions of twenty-first century temperature and precipitation
The rationale for international agreements on climate change mitigation comes from the global scope of impacts, irrespective of the location of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By … read more »
2013
An Independent National Adaptation Programme for England
An Independent National Adaptation Programme for England read more »
2013
Video abstract on mapping climate change
A translation of observations of weather into observations of climate change at local scales is presented in a new paper by David Stainforth, Sandra Chapman and Nick Watkins. The paper shows … read more »
Video abstract of new paper on mapping climate change
David Stainforth discusses his climate change research paper, which shows how the distributions of daily temperatures have changed shape over the last half century. Such information is likely to be valuable in planning adaptation measures. read more »
Video abstract of new paper explores issues in the design and interpretation of climate model ensembles
Drs Joe Daron and David Stainforth use the video to further explain their paper, which suggests that to understand future climate we need far larger ensembles of Global Climate Models than are available today. read more »
Presentation at EQUIP workshop on uncertainty in weather, climate and impacts
Senior Research Fellow, David Stainforth, gave a presentation at EQUIP workshop (a NERC-funded project) on 13/14 March at the Royal Society. The workshop was entitled, ‘Strengthening resilience through improved treatment … read more »
2011
Questions and answers with Dr David Stainforth
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics. The Royal Society
'Confidence from uncertainty' - new exhibit at the Royal Society on interpreting climate predictions
This exhibit, from 5-10 July, aims to explore how predictions are made and communicated, how and when probabilities can be deduced, and the role of computer models in these processes. It will involve interactive computer-based probability games and hands-on physical games to do so. Dr David Stainforth is leading its preparation. read more »
2010
Climate science in the spotlight may not be such a bad thing
Dave Stainforth: The recent scandals demonstrate a wide misunderstanding of climate science, and of science more generally the Guardian
LSE Executive Summer School | Climate change: economics and governance
This multi-disciplinary five-day course provides an in-depth overview of the economics and governance of climate change, and the risks and opportunities they present for a range of organisations. The course … read more »
2015
LSE Executive Summer School | Climate change: economics and governance
This multi-disciplinary five-day course provides an in-depth overview of the economics and governance of climate change, and the risks and opportunities they present for a range of organisations. read more »
2014
Risk Management and Climate Change
event was hosted by the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the Grantham Research Institute. A series of presentations, chaired by Nick Silver, (Director, Callund Consulting and … read more »
2013
Climate Change and Cocktails
Speakers: Included David Stainforth, Naomi Hicks, Maria Carvalho, Amelia Sharman, David Wilson and Murray Collins Climate change experts from the Grantham Research Institute at the LSE and at Imperial College … read more »
