Tales of future weather
Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This ‘tales of future weather’ approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like.
Hazeleger, W., B. J. J. M. Van den Hurk, E. Min, G. J. Van Oldenborgh, A. C. Petersen, D. A. Stainforth, E. Vasileiadou, and L. A. Smith. Tales of Future Weather. Nature Climate Change, 5, 2015