Diffusion of clean technologies: patterns, mechanisms and future challenges

Climate change is already driving significant economic losses through extreme heat, altered rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and widespread disruptions to ecosystems and communities. Avoiding far more severe impacts will require deep, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions — reductions that depend fundamentally on accelerating the innovation and widespread adoption of clean technologies.

This paper analyses the patterns and drivers of global clean technology diffusion: how these technologies have spread, why uptake varies across countries, and what this means for the next stage of deployment. The authors focus on mitigation technologies, particularly their rapid expansion over the past two decades. Through case studies of solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, the authors examine how policy frameworks and enabling infrastructure shape the ability of these technologies to scale.

The paper shows that early-stage R&D and targeted demand‑pull policies in leading markets helped spark the initial diffusion of clean technologies. China’s industrial strategy then enabled large‑scale manufacturing, driving sharp cost declines. Sustained adoption depended on complementary inputs — including grid upgrades, charging networks, finance and skilled labour. Although political‑economy obstacles slowed progress in some contexts, credible and consistent policy frameworks helped momentum elsewhere.

Key points for decision-makers

• Deployment has accelerated in the power sector and light transport, but progress remains limited in hard‑to‑abate industries.
• China has emerged as the pivotal actor in both technology innovation and large-scale deployment.
• Modularity has been central to rapid cost reductions and scaling.
• Adoption in lower‑ and middle‑income economies is only now gaining momentum, though the potential for growth is substantial.

The next phase of clean technology diffusion faces several pressing challenges:

• Rising vulnerabilities in critical minerals supply chains are creating new concerns about the cost and affordability of clean technologies.
• Uncertainty over the transformative — and potentially disruptive — impacts of artificial intelligence introduces both significant opportunities and risks for clean-tech innovation and deployment.
• Geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global landscape and may alter the future trajectory of clean technology diffusion in unpredictable ways.

DOI: 10.21953/researchonline.lse.ac.uk.00137824