Are crop residue burning bans effective? Evidence from India

Farmers around the world burn much of the agricultural residue they generate, producing 3.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. In North India, crop residue burning (CRB) is the leading cause of air pollution and, consequently, premature mortality — accounting for approximately 17.8% of all deaths in the country in 2019. Given its severe environmental and public health consequences, it is critical that policymakers and governments deepen their understanding of CRB and explore effective strategies to curb it — including the use of bans as a potential deterrent.

The authors of this paper assess the effectiveness of India’s largest ban on CRB using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits its implementation across select states.

The findings show that burning initially declined in areas where enforcement of the ban was stronger and fines were imposed, likely due to increased uncertainty and perceived risk among farmers. However, weak and inconsistent enforcement over time led to a return to pre-ban levels, highlighting the limitations of bans without sustained implementation.

Key points for decision-makers

• India’s largest ban on CRB initially led to significant reductions across states with stronger implementation.
• Bans can be effective when accompanied by imposition of penalties as a mechanism for enforcement.
• Perceived enforcement risk — though short-lived — likely raised the expected cost of burning, leading to short-term compliance.
• In the absence of a commitment by states to enforce bans, other policies that lower the cost of proper residue disposal are likely to be more practical and effective.