uncertainty

When agents are unable to smooth consumption and have distorted beliefs about the likelihood of future income realisations, uncertainty about... Read more

Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of... Read more

The decision of whether to retain forest or convert to another land use is affected by uncertainty over future land use returns. This paper examines the design of conservation payments to landowners under uncertainty. Payments are either indexed to the returns from deforestation (agriculture), or to a market value associated with forest nonuse benefits. Payment size depends on the degree of correlation between payments and agricultural returns, and their relative volatility. Market-based payments for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) are simulated for Brazilian soybean growers. Payments indexed to carbon prices are larger than those indexed to international soybean prices. (JEL Q23, Q24) Read more

Elliott J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., et al. (2014). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), pp.3239–3244. Read more

Piontek, F, Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Clark, D.B., Deryng, D., et al. (2014). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,... Read more

We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data. Read more