The authors of this paper define a model selection parameter, which switches on one of a suite of proposed climate nonlinearities and multidecadal climate feedbacks. find that a model with a temperature-dependent climate feedback is most consistent with global mean surface temperature observations, but that the sign of the temperature-dependence is opposite of what Earth system models suggest. Read more
When do probability distribution functions (PDFs) about future climate misrepresent uncertainty? How can we recognise when such misrepresentation occurs and... Read more
This brief summarises the main lessons from four years of the UMFULA project – led by the Grantham Research Institute, UMFULA has addressed questions of climate science, climate impacts and decision-making processes for adaptation in central and southern Africa, with focuses on Malawi and Tanzania. Read more
In this paper, the authors’ treatment of uncertainty in environmental applications is motivated by two leading examples: climate change and biodiversity loss. They argue that in these cases uncertainty is sufficiently far-reaching that standard decision-making tools such as expected utility theory may no longer capture important aspects of our uncertainty preferences. Richer models of decision-making, which allow us to express lack of confidence in our information, may be more desirable. Read more
Abstract Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed... Read more
The climate change debate is a battle of attrition with a habit of getting nasty. Both sides in the debate... Read more
The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are... Read more
We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in... Read more