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The authors of this paper define a model selection parameter, which switches on one of a suite of proposed climate nonlinearities and multidecadal climate feedbacks. find that a model with a temperature-dependent climate feedback is most consistent with global mean surface temperature observations, but that the sign of the temperature-dependence is opposite of what Earth system models suggest. Read more

Copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License

In this paper, the authors’ treatment of uncertainty in environmental applications is motivated by two leading examples: climate change and biodiversity loss. They argue that in these cases uncertainty is sufficiently far-reaching that standard decision-making tools such as expected utility theory may no longer capture important aspects of our uncertainty preferences. Richer models of decision-making, which allow us to express lack of confidence in our information, may be more desirable. Read more

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