Behaviour, political inaction and the adaptation implementation gap: unlocking flood and drought preparedness in public finance through a beta application of the Multi-Actor Behaviour Journey methodology

Governments increasingly recognise the need to prepare for the growing risks of climate change, including floods and droughts. Yet national commitments on climate adaptation are often not translated into funded action. Across sub-Saharan Africa, this implementation gap can leave people more exposed to climate hazards, while governments miss opportunities to reduce future human and economic costs through better preparedness.

This paper presents the first real-world application of Multi-Actor Behaviour Journey (MABEJ), a new methodology for understanding why action can stall when many different people and institutions are involved in making and implementing policy. Drawing on behavioural science alongside human-centred design, systems thinking and social science, MABEJ is a new tool to examine how the behaviours and decisions of different actors interact across the stages of a policy process. It also considers the wider power dynamics and structural inequalities that can influence these decisions and identifies leverage points to unlocking change.

The authors apply the methodology in its beta form to Tanzania’s national budgeting process to explore why high-level commitments on climate adaptation do not always result in funding for action on the ground. Their analysis identifies where progress is being held back, what needs to change and which actors are in a position to make that change. The study shows how MABEJ could help break down complex political and institutional barriers to climate adaptation into a clearer and more actionable set of problems that can be understood and addressed.

Key points for decision-makers

• Flood and drought preparedness in Tanzania is repeatedly deprioritised at different stages of the national budgeting process, with failures at one stage creating barriers at subsequent stages.
• The greatest opportunities to strengthen preparedness in Tanzania lie early in the budgeting process, particularly where the Ministry of Finance sets the Planning and Budget Guidelines (PBGS) to inform sectoral budget submissions and subsequent budget review.
• The actors with the strongest mandate and motivation to advance preparedness do not necessarily control the budget decisions that could make the greatest difference.
• By identifying what is preventing action, whether related to capacity, institutional structures or motivation, MABEJ can help decision-makers and development actors develop targeted approaches to overcome these barriers.
• Closing the adaptation implementation gap requires more than stronger plans: commitments need to be carried through into routine planning, budgeting and administrative processes.

DOI: 10.21953/researchonline.lse.ac.uk.00141488