India’s crop burning ban initially reduced illegal fires by 30%, research finds

The introduction of India’s ban on crop residue burning led initially to a 30% decline in illegal fires, according to a new study published today (7 August 2025) by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the LSE, Ashoka University and the University of British Columbia.

In ‘Are crop residue burning bans effective? Evidence from India’, the researchers found that fires set by farmers declined by 30% after the crop residue burning (CRB) ban was introduced. However, this effect diminished to near zero within 2-3 years of the ban’s implementation.

The CRB ban was imposed by the National Green Tribunal, a specialized judicial body under the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, in December 2015 and was applied in five states – Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan. 

Using state-level data on fires, the study shows that burning initially was reduced in areas where the ban was better enforced, creating greater certainty for farmers. Despite this progress, low levels of enforcement after a few years led to a return to previous levels of illegal burning.

CRB is a leading cause of high air pollution in developing countries and has gained significant public attention due to its harmful effects on environmental and human health. Farmers around the world burn large amounts of the agricultural residue they generate – about 50% of residue in the developing world – contributing to 3.5% of annual global emissions of greenhouse gases.

In India, CRB has been linked to severe health and developmental consequences, including reduced child height from exposure at birth and increased infant mortality due to farm fires. These findings underscore the substantial human costs of agricultural burning, particularly for vulnerable populations. 

Indian farmers burn about 100 million metric tons of surplus crop residue annually – roughly one-fifth of the total residue generated from crop production. Paddy or rice (particularly hybrid rice) is the most commonly burned crop. According to the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), over 60% of all rice stubble generated in India is set ablaze, with Punjab and Haryana being the primary contributors. Around 80 per cent of all crop residue burning is concentrated in the months of October and December. 

CRB is now recognized as a leading cause of air pollution in North India and a major contributor to premature mortality, accounting for approximately 17.8% of all annual deaths as of 2019. The practice also depletes organic matter in soil, potentially reducing crop productivity.

Shefali Khanna, a Fellow in the Department of Geography and Environment at the London School of Economics, said:

“Across states, the popular perception of the ban – or most bans, for that matter – is that they are largely ineffective, but our research shows that isn’t always the case.

“The crop residue burning ban was – and can be – effective when proper deterrents like fines are enforced. 

“Farmers did respond cautiously to the ban from the outset, but without effective implementation and adequate penalties, the low likelihood of being fined proved to be an insufficient deterrent in the long run.”