A preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies

Working Paper 63

Abstract

Over the past decade, growth in insurance demand in the BRICS economies has been a key driver of global non-life premium growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth over the coming decade.

We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030.

We suggest five pathways of influence:

• Economic growth;
• Willingness to pay for insurance;
• Public policy and regulation;
• The insurability of natural catastrophe risks, and;
• New opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation.

We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising incomes. The scale of the impacts and their direction depend to some extent on (re)insurer responses to the challenges of climate change. We outline five actions that could pave the way for future opportunities.

Nicola Ranger and Swenja Surminski