The expansion of modern agriculture and global biodiversity decline: an integrated assessment

Working paper 2 June, 2016

Modern agriculture relies on a small number of highly productive crops and its continued expansion has led to a significant loss of biodiversity. In this paper we consider the macroeconomic consequences of this land conversion process from the perspective of agricultural productivity and food production. We employ a quantitative, structurally estimated model of the global economy in which economic growth, population and food demand, agricultural innovations, and land conversion are jointly determined. We show that even a small impact of global biodiversity on agricultural productivity calls for both a halt in agricultural land conversion and increased agricultural R&D.