Prof. Lenny Smith


As well as being a Professor in Statistics at LSE, Lenny is also Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS) and Senior Research Fellow at Pembroke College, Oxford.


Lenny obtained a PhD in Physics at Columbia University (USA) in 1987.

He has held grants funded by many bodies, including ONR (US Office of Naval Research) and NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the European Commission and UK Research Councils.

Two successful projects – DIME and REMIND – were funded under the UK EPSRC Maths Faraday programme, and a current project, NAPSTER (Nonlinear Analysis and Prediction Statistics from Time Series and Ensemble forecast Realizations), is a UK NERC Knowledge Transfer grant.

Lenny was active in the formation of strategy for THORPEX (he was co-author of the Socio-Economic Impacts Chapter).

In recognition of his mathematically-coherent user-relevant contributions, the Royal Meteorological Society awarded Professor Smith its Fitzroy Prize.


Research article  7 May, 2015

An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of … read more »


Working paper  1 February, 2014

Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

Operational seasonal forecasting centres employ simulation models to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Skill in such forecasts is reflected … read more »

Working paper  1 February, 2014

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

While state-of-the-art models of the Earth’s climate system have improved tremendously over the last twenty years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the … read more »


Working paper  1 April, 2013

Predicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought: 2012 and the case for better modeling

The 2012 growing season saw one of the worst droughts in a generation in much of the United States and cast a harsh light on the … read more »


Working paper  1 December, 2011

Pattern scaled climate change scenarios: are these useful for adaptation?

Pattern scaling methods are being widely applied to generate scenarios of climate change for quantication of their impacts on different systems. While generic limitations of this … read more »

Research article  19 March, 2011

Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states

Operational forecasting with simulation models involves the melding of observations and model dynamics to determine a set of initial conditions for each forecast. The Kalman filter (KF) provides the … read more »


Research article  18 June, 2010

Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models

Parameter estimation in nonlinear models is a common task, and one for which there is no general solution at present. In the case of linear models, the distribution of … read more »

More in research publications


Public Lectures 16 Mar 2010

Professor Leonard Smith - climate Models: Current science and common sense

ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Lecture as part of ESRC Festival of Social Science Chair: Professor Nancy Cartwright, professor of philosophy at LSE Speaker: Professor Leonard Smith, … read more »


Grantham Workshop 20 Jun 2007

Roundtable discussions: LSE Climate Change Network

This first roundtable included talks by Lord Nicholas Stern, ‘The Economics of Climate Change: the challenge for industry’, and by Professor Leonard Smith, ‘Climate Modelling in Decision Support: coping with … read more »

More in events