Antony Millner

Associate Professorial Research Fellow

Antony works on a variety of issues in economics, with a focus on applications to environmental problems.  His current research projects include work on climate change economics, discounting, and the political economy of policy choice.


Antony completed his PhD at Oxford University in 2010, and spent two years as a Ciriacy-Wantrup Postdoctoral Scholar in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

He also has a Masters degrees in Theoretical Physics and Applied Mathematics from Cambridge University and the University of Cape Town.

Research interests

  • Environmental and Resource Economics
  • Political Economy
  • Welfare Economics & Decision Theory

Prospective PhD students

Antony welcomes prospective PhD students with shared interests, and strong backgrounds in economics or related disciplines.
Visit the ‘Study with us’ page for further information on applying to be a PhD student with us.

Working paper  19 January, 2017

Valuing predictability

The authors of this paper study the question of how important it is to predict the distant future. read more »


Research article  23 August, 2016

Beliefs, politics, and environmental policy

Experts and the general public often perceive environmental problems differently. Moreover, regulatory responses to environmental issues often do not coincide with consensus expert recommendations. These two facts are mutually … read more »

Research article  26 July, 2016

Model confirmation in climate economics

Paper demonstrates the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises for policy applications, demonstrating that the economic growth model used by a prominent BC-IAM had little predictive power over the 20th century. read more »

Working paper  17 February, 2016

Heterogeneous intergenerational altruism

Agents exhibit pure intergenerational altruism if they care not just about the consumption utility experienced by future generations, but about their total wellbeing. If all generations are altruistic, each generation’s … read more »


Working paper  14 December, 2015

Collective intertemporal choice: time consistency vs. time invariance

We study collective choice when individuals have heterogeneous discounted utilitarian preferences. Two attractive properties of intertemporal preferences are indistinguishable for individuals, but have dramatically different implications for collective choice. Time … read more »

Working paper  25 August, 2015

Beliefs, politics, and environmental policy

This paper explores the relationship between beliefs and policy choices in relation to environmental regulation. read more »

Working paper  25 August, 2015

Should climate policy account for ambiguity?

Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of rapid increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Moreover, the fact that … read more »


Working paper  24 November, 2014

Resolving intertemporal conflicts: Economics vs. Politics

Intertemporal conflicts occur when a group of agents with heterogeneous time preferences must make a collective decision about how to manage a common asset. How should this be done? We … read more »

Research article  7 September, 2014

Policy experimentation, political competition, and heterogeneous beliefs

We model how heterogeneous beliefs about the uncertain consequences of long-run policy choices affect the incentives of incumbent governments. read more »

Research article  30 June, 2014

Climate engineering reconsidered

Stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols has been advocated as an emergency geoengineering measure to tackle dangerous climate change, or as a stop-gap until atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are reduced. But it may not prove to be the game-changer that some imagine. read more »

Research article  1 May, 2014

Policy experimentation, political competition, and heterogeneous beliefs

We consider a two period model in which an incumbent political party chooses the level of a current policy variable unilaterally, but faces competition from a political opponent in … read more »

Research article  11 March, 2014

Agreeing to disagree on climate policy

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. Disagreements about the value of the utility discount rate—the rate at which our concern for the welfare of future people declines with their distance from us in time—are at the heart of the debate about the appropriate intensity of climate policy. read more »

Research article  1 January, 2014

Uncertainty and decision making in climate change economics

Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing but not precisely how fast or in what ways. read more »

Research article  1 January, 2014

Adaptation to climate change and economic growth in developing countries

Published in: Environment and Development Economics. Vol 20, Issue 03, June 2015, pp 380 – 406. DOI: 10.1017/S1355770X14000692, Published online: 25 November 2014. Abstract Developing countries are vulnerable to the … read more »


Research article  21 May, 2013

Scientific ambiguity and climate policy

Environmental and Resource Economics. Economic evaluation of climate policy traditionally treats uncertainty by appealing to expected utility theory. read more »

Working paper  1 April, 2013

Discounting under disagreement

NBER Working Paper. A group of agents disagree about the appropriate inter temporal preferences to use when exploiting a common productive resource. read more »

Research article  29 March, 2013

On welfare frameworks and catastrophic climate risks

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to ‘fat-tailed’ risks of catastrophic outcomes (Weitzman, 2009). read more »

Research article  20 January, 2013

Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?

Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan … read more »

More in research publications


Policy report  1 September, 2010

Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process

Climate change is one of the most significant challenges we face. It will impact the UK population, environment and economy in many ways; including health, water supplies, food, … read more »

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In the news  4 July, 2014

Climate engineering offers little hope of mitigation

Injecting particles into the stratosphere to shade and cool the Earth will never stop climate change. This is the shocking claim made in the July issue of Nature Climate Change by an international group of prominent scientists read more »

Announcement  30 June, 2014

Outstanding publication award

A paper by Antony Millner (Research Fellow ) and Simon Dietz (Co-Director) of the Grantham Research Institute, and Geoffrey Heal from Columbia University, has won the EAERE Award for outstanding … read more »

In the news  26 February, 2014

Discount rates, ethical conundrums, and compromising on climate policy

Business Green


Announcement  24 October, 2013

Grantham Research Institute to speak at London Climate Forum

Experts from the Grantham Research Institute at the LSE will be speaking at the London Climate Forum, one of the largest student-led conferences on climate change and sustainability. read more »

Announcement  15 October, 2013

GRI's Antony Millner wins prestigious research award

Antony Millner, Research Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute, has been awarded the CESIfo Distinguished Affiliate prize. The Committee for the CESifo Prize grants this award to a young economist for the scientific … read more »

Commentary  13 June, 2013

Facing up to uncertainty in climate-change economics, Vox,

Uncertainty is intrinsic in climate-change economics. This column argues that it’s here to stay. There will be no accurate predictive tool for predicting economic growth, the emergence of clean-energy technology, … read more »


In the news  27 November, 2012

Experts' knowledge assessed

Nature, Climate Change


Commentary  1 September, 2010

Ambiguity is another reason to mitigate climate change

The answers to “How much should people sacrifice today for the benefit of those living several decades from now?” vary widely. This column suggests that people’s distaste for uncertainty – … read more »

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Grantham Workshop 3 May 2017

Grantham Workshop | Antony Millner 'Non-paternalistic social discounting'

Antony Millner, an Associate Professorial Research Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, will be the speaker for this seminar. … read more »


Seminars 3 Jun 2016

Grantham seminar | Matthew Adler 'Prioritarianism and climate change'

Grantham seminar introduced and chaired by Antony Millner, Associate Professorial Research Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute Prof. Matthew Adler, Richard A. Horvitz Professor of Law and Professor of Economics, … read more »


Grantham Workshop 7 May 2014

Discounting the future: a political economy approach

Speaker: Antony Millner

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