Antony Millner

Governments are catching up with economic theory and practice by increasingly integrating ecosystem service values into national planning processes, including... Read more

Abstract We study a dynamic social choice problem in which a sequence of committees must decide how to consume a... Read more

Recent work on collective intertemporal choice suggests that non-dictatorial social preferences are generically time inconsistent. We argue that this claim... Read more

In this paper, the authors’ treatment of uncertainty in environmental applications is motivated by two leading examples: climate change and biodiversity loss. They argue that in these cases uncertainty is sufficiently far-reaching that standard decision-making tools such as expected utility theory may no longer capture important aspects of our uncertainty preferences. Richer models of decision-making, which allow us to express lack of confidence in our information, may be more desirable. Read more

The authors of this paper study the question of how important it is to predict the distant future. Read more

Abstract Experts and the general public often perceive environmental problems differently. Moreover, regulatory responses to environmental issues often do not... Read more

Paper demonstrates the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises for policy applications, demonstrating that the economic growth model used by a prominent BC-IAM had little predictive power over the 20th century. Read more

Agents exhibit pure intergenerational altruism if they care not just about the consumption utility experienced by future generations, but about... Read more

We study collective choice when individuals have heterogeneous discounted utilitarian preferences. Two attractive properties of intertemporal preferences are indistinguishable for... Read more

This paper explores the relationship between beliefs and policy choices in relation to environmental regulation. Read more

Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of... Read more

Intertemporal conflicts occur when a group of agents with heterogeneous time preferences must make a collective decision about how to... Read more

We model how heterogeneous beliefs about the uncertain consequences of long-run policy choices affect the incentives of incumbent governments. Read more

Stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols has been advocated as an emergency geoengineering measure to tackle dangerous climate change, or as a stop-gap until atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are reduced. But it may not prove to be the game-changer that some imagine. Read more

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. Disagreements about the value of the utility discount rate—the rate at which our concern for the welfare of future people declines with their distance from us in time—are at the heart of the debate about the appropriate intensity of climate policy. Read more

Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing but not precisely how fast or in what ways. Read more

Published in: Environment and Development Economics. Vol 20, Issue 03, June 2015, pp 380 – 406. DOI: 10.1017/S1355770X14000692, Published online:... Read more

Environmental and Resource Economics. Economic evaluation of climate policy traditionally treats uncertainty by appealing to expected utility theory. Read more

NBER Working Paper. A group of agents disagree about the appropriate inter temporal preferences to use when exploiting a common productive resource. Read more

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to ‘fat-tailed’ risks of catastrophic outcomes (Weitzman, 2009). Read more

Abstract Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci... Read more

Headline issue Climate change is one of the most significant challenges we face. It will impact the UK population, environment... Read more

Injecting particles into the stratosphere to shade and cool the Earth will never stop climate change. This is the shocking claim made in the July issue of Nature Climate Change by an international group of prominent scientists Read more

A paper by Antony Millner (Research Fellow ) and Simon Dietz (Co-Director) of the Grantham Research Institute, and Geoffrey Heal... Read more

Business Green Read more

Experts from the Grantham Research Institute at the LSE will be speaking at the London Climate Forum, one of the largest student-led conferences on climate change and sustainability. Read more

Antony Millner, Research Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute, has been awarded the CESIfo Distinguished Affiliate prize. The Committee for the CESifo... Read more

Uncertainty is intrinsic in climate-change economics. This column argues that it’s here to stay. There will be no accurate predictive... Read more

Nature, Climate Change Read more

The answers to “How much should people sacrifice today for the benefit of those living several decades from now?” vary... Read more