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climate model
We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data. Read more
Working Paper 151 Abstract Operational seasonal forecasting centres employ simulation models to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal... Read more
Working Paper 150 Abstract While state-of-the-art models of the Earth’s climate system have improved tremendously over the last twenty years,... Read more
Frigg, R., L.A. Smith, D. A. Stainforth. In: Philosophy of Science, December 2013. Read more
Abstract It has recently been highlighted that the economic value of climate change mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility... Read more
Abstract Can today’s global climate model ensembles characterize the 21st century climate in their own ‘model-worlds’? This question is at... Read more
Nicholas Stern, Journal of Economic Literature, September, 2013. Read more