Understanding climate models

This research topic recognises that working with and understanding climate models remains central to the design of a rational response strategy to climate change.

The Institute will continue to collaborate closely with climate scientists by studying the value and use of climate information and add a decision/policy angle to scientific research.

The research will explore:

1. The value of climate models for informing decision-making and policy (both adaptation and mitigation);
2. The priorities for future climate research, and;
3. Approaches to quantify and deal with uncertainty.

Formally, work on climate science and modelling will be led by the LSE Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS).

Publications

Stainforth D. A., 2014. Climate projection: testing climate assumptions. Nature Climate Change, 4, pp. 248–249. External link to article 

Stainforth D. A., Chapman S. C., and Watkins, N. W., 2013. Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions. Environmental Research Letters. External link to article PDF

Daron J. D. and Stainforth, D. A., 2013. On predicting climate under climate change. Environmental Research Letters. External link to article PDF

Calel, R., Stainforth, D.A., and Dietz, S., 2013. Tall tales and Fat tails: The science and economics of extreme warming. Climatic Change. External link to article PDF

Millner, A., Calel, R., Stainforth, D., and MacKerron, G., 2013. Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change? Climatic Change, 116(2), pp.427-436.  External link to article PDF