The autonomous adaptation of US homes to changing temperatures

Little is known about how households adapt to climate change. Previous research has focused on geographical differences in fuel choice and air conditioning.

Using a 28-year panel of homes in the United States, the authors of this paper conducted the first longitudinal analysis of eight categories of adaptations and their impact on electricity, gas and water expenditure. Exposure to cold or warm days correlates with increased spending on doors, windows, equipment, insulation, energy and water.

The findings suggest that cooling costs will rise but will be offset by lower heating costs. The authors predict a significant increase in electricity and water use during summer, leading to seasonal utility adjustments.

Key points for decision-makers

• The authors investigated the adaptation of residential building stock using 28 years of data from the American Housing Survey (AHS, 1985–2013).
• Instead of comparing housing features, such as penetration of air conditioning in different regions, the AHS data allows observation of home improvements over a period long enough to estimate the impact of gradual changes in temperature on the structure of housing units.
• The authors also analysed a wider set of investments (eight categories) and their impact on energy and water bills.
• They find that cold temperatures increase electricity and gas expenditure, and warm temperatures increase electricity and water expenditure.
• They observed a stronger response to both cold and hot temperatures in the long term than in the short term. This suggests that home improvements increase weather-induced energy and water demands, underpinning the strong effect that climate change adaptation could have on energy and water use.
• These results show the importance of analysing all cost entries in conjunction, since increases in certain areas may be offset by reductions in others.
• A shift in cost from winter to summer months could be expected.

This paper updates ‘The cost of adapting to climate change: evidence from the US residential sector’, published in February 2017.