Francisco de Melo Viríssimo

Francisco is a mathematician and environmental scientist, with a primary interest in climate and ocean phenomena. 

Francisco joined GRI in November 2021. Since then, much of his work has been focused on climate prediction, particularly on computational ensemble design and uncertainty quantification, as tools to provide robust and reliable knowledge to climate information users and consumers (such as economists, decision makers and journalists).

At GRI, Francisco co-leads the £1.97m UKRI/Defra-funded ATTENUATE project, a collaborative consortium focused on unlocking private sector investment in UK climate adaptation. Central to this project is the creation of mathematically/physically robust climate storylines, which communicate evolving climate information and will play a key role in testing adaptation finance solutions.

Other current projects and roles include:

• Project Member, JETZON Ocean BCP Benchmark, Working Group 1;
• Chair, IMA Special Interest Group on “Climate, Environment and Sustainability”;
• Associate Member, Parliamentary & Scientific Committee;
• Lead editor, cross-journal EGU special issue on “Theoretical and computational aspects of ensemble design, implementation, and interpretation in climate science”;
• Co-editor, J. Phys. focus issue on “Mathematics of Planet Earth: Theory, Data, and Models”;
• Editor, JETZON Newsletter.

Background

Francisco graduated with a BSc in Pure Mathematics and an MSc in Applied Mathematics, both from the University of Sao Paulo (USP), and with a PhD in Mathematics from the University of Bath. Following his PhD, Francisco spent the first few years of his postdoctoral career working as a Research Scientist for the UK’s National Oceanography Centre(NOC), before joining GRI in 2021. Francisco is also a Visiting Fellow at the Interdisciplinary Climate Investigation Centre(INCLINE) at USP, and has previously been a visitor at the NOC, the Isaac Newton Institute (INI), and the Federal University of Parana (UFPR) in southern Brazil. 

His research experience spans areas such as applied dynamical systems, computational mathematics, climate dynamics, marine biogeochemical cycles and fluid mechanics.

The quality of his research has been recognised by several awards over the years, including a prestigious STEM for BRITAIN Award in the Houses of Parliament in 2024 for “quality of mathematical work” on climate prediction.

In addition to his scientific work, Francisco has a broad experience of service to community in his areas of expertise and in different roles. In particular, he has served as Councillor and Trustee for the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications (IMA), which is the professional and learned society for Mathematics in the UK.

Research interests

• Modelling of ocean and climate phenomena: from conceptual modelling (e.g. Stud. Appl. Math., 2019) to state-of-the-art global models (e.g. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 2022); 
• Theoretical foundations of climate prediction and uncertainty quantification (e.g. EGU, 2023, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 2025);
• Marine biogeochemistry and the ocean’s carbon cycle (e.g. Global Biogeochem. Cy., 2022, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2024); 
• Differential equations, nonlinear dynamics and chaos (e.g. Proc. Royal Soc. A, 2020, Chaos AIP, 2024)
• Knowledge exchange in Earth and Environmental Sciences (e.g. Math. Today, 2022).