New study finds AI could reduce global emissions annually by 3.2 to 5.4 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent by 2035
Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) in power, transport and food consumption could reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases by 3.2 to 5.4 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent annually by 2035, according to new research by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Systemiq published today in the Nature journal ‘npj Climate Action’.
In Green and Intelligent: The Role of AI in the Climate Transition, the authors conclude that, if AI is effectively applied in key impact areas, the estimated emissions reductions “would outweigh increases from global power consumption of data centres and AI”. Estimations of power consumption are based on an assessment of all of AI’s activities, not just those related to decarbonisation.
The authors argue that “the world faces an unprecedented opportunity to leverage AI as a catalyst for the net-zero transition. The five impact areas through which AI can drive emissions reductions – transforming complex systems, innovating technology discovery and resource efficiency, nudging and behavioural change, modelling climate systems and policy interventions, and managing resilience and adaptation – provide a clear roadmap for harnessing AI’s potential.”
In the power sector, the authors find that AI can improve the efficiency of renewable energy systems by greatly improving grid management and increasing the load factor of solar photovoltaics and wind by as much as 20%. The authors also found that AI could improve the adoption rates of alternative proteins (APs) from 8-14% in a ‘business as usual’ scenario to 18-33% in an ambitious AI scenario, and 27-50% in a highly ambitious AI scenario.
The authors state that “AI can also be used to better predict investment risks and returns, improving financial decisions where information is scarcer, particularly in emerging markets where perceived risk is high, often due to limited and asymmetric information.”
They also point out that: “AI models can also be applied directly to better design and implement policies for climate action, by generating insights and predictions around complex climate policy scenarios or monitoring the effectiveness of policy implementation”. AI can also support long-term resilience and adaptation through its ability to create large-scale simulations tracking and accessing how ecosystems might evolve.
As climate-related disasters become more frequent and severe, the ability to forecast hazards and adapt to changing conditions will become increasingly critical. AI is already improving early warning systems for extreme weather events, such as floods and wildfires, enabling governments and communities to take proactive measures to mitigate damage, saving both lives and significant costs.
The power, transport and food consumption sectors together are responsible for roughly 50% of global emissions of greenhouse gases each year. The authors point out that these sectors are very interconnected “so that accelerating the adoption and efficiency of low-carbon solutions, will no doubt trigger technological tipping points elsewhere, resulting in cascading effects across the economy.”
Nicholas Stern, Chair of the Grantham Research institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said:
“The world faces an unprecedented opportunity to leverage AI as a driver and catalyst to accelerate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and the transition away from fossil fuels. However, leaving markets alone to determine the applications and governance of AI could prove to be risky.
“Artificial Intelligence holds transformative potential to accelerate the climate transition in emerging and developing economies — helping to unlock investment, reduce risk, and leapfrog outdated infrastructure — yet realizing this promise requires targeted public investment, shared data, and equitable access to AI capabilities so that no country is left behind in the net-zero transition.”
“Governments have a critical role in ensuring that AI is deployed effectively to accelerate the transition equitably and sustainably. Without active public policy, the commercial incentives to apply AI in the socially productive areas described may be weak relative to application in influencing consensus demand, which may be somewhat less socially useful.”
Mattia Romani, partner and head of sustainable finance at Systemiq and Senior Visiting Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute, LSE said:
“Our research shows that with the right collaboration—between governments, tech companies, and energy providers — AI can be harnessed to accelerate climate action, not hinder it. By intentionally directing AI towards clean growth, adaptation, and resilience, we can ensure it delivers real benefits for people and the planet.
“Public intervention is particularly important in addressing the potential risks associated with AI, such as increased energy consumption and the exacerbation of inequalities between the Global North and South.”