New London Plan risks bigger losses of lives and livelihoods from climate change

The new London Plan being prepared by Sadiq Khan risks exposing more people and property in the capital to loss and damage from climate change, according to a new report published today (17 July 2025) by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

The response to the official consultation warns that a failure to embed in the new London Plan the implementation of the London Climate Resilience Review, which was published one year ago today, could have a range of negative consequences for people who work and live in the capital.

It points out that building on green belt land in London would increase the urban heat island effect and result in higher risks from heatwaves and wildfires. It also highlights the importance of all new homes and offices being built to withstand future impacts of climate change which will worsen for at least the next 25 years. Existing buildings will also need to be retrofitted to cope with more frequent and severe extreme weather events.

The submission to the Mayor of London was produced by Bob Ward, Chair of the London Climate Ready Partnership and Policy and Communications Director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

The submission notes that a failure to address the growing impacts of climate change would lead to an increase in inequality in London: “Without adaptation to improve London’s resilience to the impacts of climate change, growing numbers of lives and livelihoods across the capital will be damaged and lost. We know that those on the lowest incomes will be most vulnerable to these impacts, which will increase inequalities across London without adaptation. Without adaptation, London will become a riskier place to live and work, and it will find it difficult to compete for workers against other cities that are more resilient.”

The submission states: “The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, demonstrated leadership on this issue when he commissioned in 2023 a review by Emma Howard Boyd of the capital’s climate change resilience. The final report of the London Climate Resilience Review, which was published in July 2024, concluded that although progress had been made in some areas, London was significantly exposed and vulnerable to climate change impacts, such as extreme heat.”

The submission points out that “the London Plan is, at present, the most significant way in which the Mayor can indicate how he will take forward the Review’s recommendations”, but adds: “It is somewhat disappointing that the consultation document does not make the Review’s recommendations a central theme and only explicitly mentions it twice in 76 pages. This failure gives the impression that implementation of the Review’s recommendations is no longer a priority for the Mayor. This would be extremely disappointing if it is true.”

Responding to the suggestion that London needs 880,000 new homes over the next decade, the submission emphasises “of critical importance is that new homes are built in a way that ensures they are resilient to the increase in climate change impacts over their lifetimes”. It adds: “This includes avoiding where possible building new homes in areas that will be at high risk from river and surface water flooding, overheating, and other impacts that are increasing due to climate change.”

The submission also warns about the increase in risks that would result from building on green belt land: “It should be noted that building on the green belt is likely to increase the urban heat island effect, leading to greater risks of overheating buildings and infrastructure. In addition, new buildings on green belt land may be exposed to greater risks of impacts from wildfire if they are located near to large areas of vegetation.”

The submission recommends that the new London Plan “should also explicitly recognise the need for significant investment in retrofitting existing houses to ensure they are resilient to the growing impacts of climate change”. Its states: “Many homes are already exposed and vulnerable to current impacts. A significant number experience overheating which increases risks of morbidity, mortality and reduced productivity. Many homes, particularly those located at basement level, are at risk from flooding.”

In addition, the submission criticises the consultation for not acknowledging the importance of the London Climate Resilience Review in relation to the design of new homes: “It is extremely important to note that any attempt to reduce the upfront costs of building houses for developers by failing to build in resilience to the growing impacts of climate change would actually lead to higher long-term costs through expensive retrofits, which will be borne by future owners and tenants, or higher losses and damages, as well as increased insurance rates. It is essential that developers are not allowed to build houses that lock-in vulnerability and a lack of resilience to climate change impacts to reduce their upfront costs.”