Hot and crowded: temperature, healthcare utilization and patient outcomes | Matthew Neidell

Professor Matthew Neidell (Columbia University) will be presenting a paper Hot and Crowded: Temperature, healthcare utilization and patient outcomes‘

Professor Neidell specialises in environmental, health, and labour economics. His most recent work applies the latest empirical methods to examine the relationship between the environment and a wide range of measures of well-being, including worker productivity, human capital, and decision making. Previous related work has focused on the effect of the environment on health outcomes and avoidance behaviour.

Abstract

This study explores how temperature-induced hospital crowding influences care trajectories and patient outcomes. Utilizing comprehensive data from Mexico’s largest healthcare subsystem from 2012 to 2019, including emergency, inpatient, and outpatient visits, we delve into the impact of daily temperature shocks on healthcare service dynamics. Our findings reveal a linear increase in healthcare demand reaching a 10% uptick in emergency department visits in the hottest bin compared to average days. While more patients are admitted from ERs into hospitals, the likelihood of an individual patient’s admission decreases as temperatures climb, suggesting a capacity crunch in healthcare facilities. This trend of increasing patient triage leads to more severe patients being sent home on hotter days. Furthermore, we observe a deterioration in care quality, reflected in heightened excess mortality rates inside hospitals. Data from death certificates confirm an overall increase in mortality on extreme days. Deaths outside hospitals, in particular, escalate more sharply. Our results shed light on the broader implications of climate-driven hospital crowding.