Yonas Alem, University of Gothenburg, will be discussing the paper Drought, livestock holding and milk production: a difference-in-differences analysis.

Abstract

We investigate the impact of the 2015-16 large scale drought on livestock holding and milk production using household panel data collected before and after the drought matched with high-resolution weather data. Difference-in-differences regression results estimated with alternative matching methods robustly suggest that the drought reduced milk production and livestock holding by about 28.5% and 8.7% respectively. The results also suggest that the loss of cattle, the most important asset in a smallholder farming context, explains the decline in livestock, and water stress and shortage of feed explains the sizable reduction in milk production. Our findings have important implication for formulation of safety net programs and adaptation strategies targeting the livestock sector in the face of a changing climate.

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