Erica Thompson will be discussing ‘Disaster Risk Financing in Model Land and the Real World’.


First I will introduce the key themes of my recent book, Escape From Model Land, with a focus on applications in climate modelling and climate services.  I will then discuss an example taken from some recent work on anticipatory humanitarian action for both weather and climate applications.  Taking action in advance of weather-related hazards such as heatwave and cyclone requires not just a weather forecast, but also some understanding of how good that forecast is likely to be.  Similarly, larger-scale disaster risk financing approaches require not just a model of present/future climatic probabilities, but also some understanding of how good that model is.  I will discuss the balancing act involved in effective and accountable disaster risk financing given imperfect knowledge of future climates.

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