We regret that this even has been cancelled

Detlef Sprinz will be discussing the paper Can the Paris Agreement deliver the 2⁰C goal following US withdrawal?

Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2C. Our model enables us to analyse to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others’ promises and contributions. Second, while the 2C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreement’s institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States’ own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries’ emissions.

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