All pages with keywords: uncertainty

The current and future climate of central and southern Africa: What we have learnt and what it means for decision-making in Malawi and Tanzania

a policy publication 7 October, 2019

This brief summarises the main lessons from four years of the UMFULA project – led by the Grantham Research Institute, UMFULA has addressed questions of climate science, climate impacts and decision-making processes for adaptation in central and southern Africa, with focuses on Malawi and Tanzania. read more »


Public lecture | Do we do enough for the future?

Public lecture | Do we do enough for the future?

Public Lecture Ben Groom 2 Feb 2017

LSE Deparment of Geography and Environment and Grantham Research Institute public lecture, introduced and chaired by Dr Ben Groom In this lecture Prof. Gollier will discuss the way one should value and compare … read more »


Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world

Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world

a research article by Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Declan Conway, Suraje Dessai, David Stainforth 29 September, 2016

Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches are considered useful for … read more »


Grantham Workshop | Carole Dalin & Daniel Heyen

Grantham Workshop | Carole Dalin & Daniel Heyen

Grantham Workshop Carole Dalin, Daniel Heyen 27 Apr 2016

This week’s Grantham Workshop will feature two speakers from the Grantham Research Institute: Carole Dalin, a Research Officer, will give a presentation entitled “Who is eating up the world’s aquifers? … read more »


Limits to the quantification of local climate change

Limits to the quantification of local climate change

a research article by David Stainforth 16 September, 2015

We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, … read more »


Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

a research article by David Stainforth 4 September, 2015

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty … read more »


Conservation payments under uncertainty

Conservation payments under uncertainty

a research article by Luca Taschini, Charles Palmer 10 February, 2015

The decision of whether to retain forest or convert to another land use is affected by uncertainty over future land use returns. This paper examines the design of conservation payments to landowners under uncertainty. Payments are either indexed to the returns from deforestation (agriculture), or to a market value associated with forest nonuse benefits. Payment size depends on the degree of correlation between payments and agricultural returns, and their relative volatility. Market-based payments for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) are simulated for Brazilian soybean growers. Payments indexed to carbon prices are larger than those indexed to international soybean prices. (JEL Q23, Q24) read more »


Professor Arthur Petersen – Munich RS Seminar: Improving the IPCC’s Uncertainty Management in Assessing Climate Change, Impacts and Response

Seminar 13 May 2010

Speaker: Professor Arthur Petersen, director of the Methodology and Modelling Programme at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), and Munich Re Programme visiting professor, LSE


Jim Hall – Robust decisions under uncertainty: examples of info-gap analysis in mitigation policy and flood risk management

Seminar 3 Jun 2010

The Climate Change and Environment Seminar Series was hosted jointly by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) … read more »


Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

a research article by Delphine Deryng 20 March, 2014

Elliott J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., et al. (2014). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), pp.3239–3244.