All pages with keywords: uncertainty
Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world
Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches are considered useful for … read more »
We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, … read more »
Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty … read more »
The decision of whether to retain forest or convert to another land use is affected by uncertainty over future land use returns. This paper examines the design of conservation payments to landowners under uncertainty. Payments are either indexed to the returns from deforestation (agriculture), or to a market value associated with forest nonuse benefits. Payment size depends on the degree of correlation between payments and agricultural returns, and their relative volatility. Market-based payments for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) are simulated for Brazilian soybean growers. Payments indexed to carbon prices are larger than those indexed to international soybean prices. (JEL Q23, Q24) read more »
Professor Arthur Petersen – Munich RS Seminar: Improving the IPCC’s Uncertainty Management in Assessing Climate Change, Impacts and Response
Speaker: Professor Arthur Petersen, director of the Methodology and Modelling Programme at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), and Munich Re Programme visiting professor, LSE
Jim Hall – Robust decisions under uncertainty: examples of info-gap analysis in mitigation policy and flood risk management
The Climate Change and Environment Seminar Series was hosted jointly by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) … read more »
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
Elliott J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., et al. (2014). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), pp.3239–3244.
Piontek, F, Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Clark, D.B., Deryng, D., et al. (2014). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), pp.3233–3238.