All pages with keywords: forecasting

Creating useful and usable weather and climate information – insights from Participatory Scenario Planning in Malawi

a working paper by Dorothy Tembo-Nhlema, Katharine Vincent, Rebecka Henriksson Malinga 9 September, 2019

This paper outlines experiences with Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP), which has been used in Malawi as a method to bring together producers and users of weather and climate information to co-produce sector-specific advisories of weather information to make it both useful and usable to the different user groups, including farmers. read more »


Climate information needs in Southern Africa: a review

Climate information needs in Southern Africa: a review

a working paper by Daleen Lötter, Claire Davis, Emma Archer van Garderen, Katharine Vincent, Joanna Pardoe, Mark Tadross, Willem Landman, Sabine Stuart-Hill, Graham Jewitt 2 July, 2018

There are currently challenges to generating climate services relating both to the supply of climate science and its application. This paper from the UMFULA project reviews the current availability of climate information in Southern Africa and assesses the requirements of a variety of end users in the region, highlighting the importance of creating user-tailored climate services. read more »


Valuing predictability

Valuing predictability

a working paper by Antony Millner, Daniel Heyen 19 January, 2017

The authors of this paper study the question of how important it is to predict the distant future. read more »


Alexander Jarman – Small-Number Statistics, Common Sense, and Profit: challenges and non-challenges for hurricane forecasting

Alexander Jarman – Small-Number Statistics, Common Sense, and Profit: challenges and non-challenges for hurricane forecasting

Seminar Alex Jarman 30 Mar 2011

Part of the PhD Seminar Series that alternates locations between the Grantham Institute at Imperial and the Grantham Research Institute at LSE. Speaker: Alexander Jarman, Grantham Research Institute on Climate … read more »


Letters: Climate change: it’s worse than we thought

Letters: Climate change: it’s worse than we thought

a commentary by Bob Ward 22 March, 2014

Contrary to your headline “Climate change: the official prophecy of doom” (18 March), it would appear that the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report is a masterclass in understatement. … read more »


Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states

Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states

a research article by Lenny Smith 19 March, 2011

Operational forecasting with simulation models involves the melding of observations and model dynamics to determine a set of initial conditions for each forecast. The Kalman filter (KF) provides the … read more »