Publications
Scientific uncertainty: a user’s guide
There are different kinds of uncertainty. This paper outlines some of the various ways that uncertainty enters science, focusing on uncertainty in climate science and weather … read more »
The treatment of risk and uncertainty in the US Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis
This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established ‘social cost of carbon’ (SCC) for analysis of federal regulations in the United … read more »
Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments
Current projections of long-term trends in Atlantic hurricane activity due to climate change are deeply uncertain, both in magnitude and sign. This creates challenges for adaptation … read more »
Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states
Operational forecasting with simulation models involves the melding of observations and model dynamics to determine a set of initial conditions for each forecast. The Kalman filter (KF) provides the … read more »
Stochastic environments as measurement tools: a new approach
Research Muth, K.T., and Helgeson, J.F. March 2011. Stochastic environments as measurement tools: a new approach. The Journal of Applied Economy, v.5, ‘Microinsurance: a new way forward’.
Strategic appraisal of environmental risks: a contrast between the UK’s Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change and its Committee on Radioactive Waste Management
In this article, we compare two high-profile strategic policy reviews undertaken for the U.K. government on environmental risks: radioactive waste management and climate change. These reviews took very different … read more »
Comment: ‘Knock knock: where is the evidence for dangerous human-caused global warming?’ by Robert M. Carter
Carter (2008) notes that for climate change “sound science [sic] understanding is an essential prerequisite to any meaningful economic analysis”. Unfortunately, his paper contains serious and … read more »
Environmental prices, uncertainty and learning
There is an increasing demand for putting a shadow price on the environment to guide public policy and incentivize private behaviour. In practice, setting that price can be extremely … read more »
Probabilistic regional and seasonal predictions of twenty-first century temperature and precipitation
The rationale for international agreements on climate change mitigation comes from the global scope of impacts, irrespective of the location of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By … read more »
Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models
Parameter estimation in nonlinear models is a common task, and one for which there is no general solution at present. In the case of linear models, the distribution of … read more »
