Publications
Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate
We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data. read more »
Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts
Operational seasonal forecasting centres employ simulation models to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Skill in such forecasts is reflected … read more »
An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models
While state-of-the-art models of the Earth’s climate system have improved tremendously over the last twenty years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the … read more »
Policy indexes as tools for decision makers – the case of climate policy
The last two decades have witnessed an explosion in the publication of country indexes that measure and rank the relative national policy performances of governments. To illustrate the challenges … read more »
Uncertainty and decision making in climate change economics
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing but not precisely how fast or in what ways. read more »
The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09
Frigg, R., L.A. Smith, D. A. Stainforth. In: Philosophy of Science, December 2013.
Benefit–cost analysis of non-marginal climate and energy projects
Conventional benefit–cost analysis incorporates the normally reasonable assumption that the policy or project under examination is marginal. Among the assumptions this entails is that the policy or project is … read more »
Exploring beliefs about bottled water and intentions to reduce consumption: the dual-effect of social norm activation and persuasive information.
Environment and Behavior, 2013. Online. Mass consumption of bottled water is contributing to a multitude of environmental problems, including; water wastage, pollution and climate change. The aim of this study … read more »
Spaces for agreement: a theory of Time-Stochastic Dominance
Many investments involve both a long time-horizon and risky returns. Making investment decisions thus requires assumptions about time and risk preferences. In the public sector in … read more »
Is there space for agreement on climate change? A non-parametric approach to policy evaluation
Economic evaluation of climate policy is notoriously dependent on assumptions about time and risk preferences, since reducing greenhouse gas emissions today has a highly uncertain pay-off, … read more »
