All pages with keywords: uncertainty
Should climate policy account for ambiguity?
Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of rapid increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Moreover, the fact that … read more »
Grantham Seminar – “Integrated Assessment of Climate Change under Uncertainty”
Christian Traeger, Assistant Professor at the Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, will be the speaker for this seminar. Abstract from Christian’s paper: “Analytic Integrated Assessment and Uncertainty” … read more »
Conservation payments under uncertainty
The decision of whether to retain forest or convert to another land use is affected by uncertainty over future land use returns. This paper examines the design of conservation payments to landowners under uncertainty. Payments are either indexed to the returns from deforestation (agriculture), or to a market value associated with forest nonuse benefits. Payment size depends on the degree of correlation between payments and agricultural returns, and their relative volatility. Market-based payments for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) are simulated for Brazilian soybean growers. Payments indexed to carbon prices are larger than those indexed to international soybean prices. (JEL Q23, Q24) read more »
Professor Arthur Petersen – Munich RS Seminar: Improving the IPCC’s Uncertainty Management in Assessing Climate Change, Impacts and Response
Speaker: Professor Arthur Petersen, director of the Methodology and Modelling Programme at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), and Munich Re Programme visiting professor, LSE
Jim Hall – Robust decisions under uncertainty: examples of info-gap analysis in mitigation policy and flood risk management
The Climate Change and Environment Seminar Series was hosted jointly by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) … read more »
Roundtable discussions: LSE Climate Change Network
This first roundtable included talks by Lord Nicholas Stern, ‘The Economics of Climate Change: the challenge for industry’, and by Professor Leonard Smith, ‘Climate Modelling in Decision Support: coping with … read more »
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
Elliott J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., et al. (2014). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), pp.3239–3244.
Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world
Piontek, F, Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Clark, D.B., Deryng, D., et al. (2014). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), pp.3233–3238.
Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate
We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data. read more »
On predicting climate under climate change
Can today’s global climate model ensembles characterize the 21st century climate in their own ‘model-worlds’? This question is at the heart of how we design and interpret climate model … read more »
