CATS: Talks and Presentations


2018 - 2020


7-8 November 2018 - CRUISSE Network will be holding its 2nd Annual Conference at UCL, London.

2 October 2018 - Leonard Smith and Erica Thompson will be speaking on 'Modelling and model land: some thoughts on a comparison of weather forecasting, climate forecasting and economics' at the Rebuilding Macroeconomics 2018 Conference: Bringing Psychology and Social Sciences into Macroeconomics, 1-2 October 2018, HM Treasury, London.

20 September 2018 - Leonard Smith will be giving an invited talk on 'The loss of  Predictability' at the Sixth Annual CliMathNet Conference, 19-21 September 2018, Reading. Abstract.

20 September 2018 - Ed Wheatcroft will be giving a talk entitled 'Beyond Bayesian updating' at the Sixth Annual CliMathNet Conference, 19-21 September 2018, Reading. Abstract.

20 September 2018 - Hailiang Du will be giving a talk entitled 'Multi-model Cross Pollination in Time: assimilating the future for better forecasts' at the Sixth Annual CliMathNet Conference, 19-21 September 2018, Reading. Abstract.

5 September 2018 - Leonard Smith took part in a panel discussion on 'The Global Weather Enterprise: the academic sector view' at the EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2018, 3-7 September 2018, Budapest, Hungary. Abstract.

20-24 August 2018 - Leonard Smith was a speaker at the SAMSI Opening Workshop on Model Uncertainty: Mathematical and Statistical (MUMS), Duke University, North Carolina, USA. Abstract.

18 June 2018 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Beyond Forecasting: Using today's model(s) to forewarn decision makers', at the ECOPOTENTIAL Project 3rd Annual Meeting, General Assembly and Project Review, 18-22 June 2018, Doñana National Park, Matalascañas, Spain. 

11-14 June 2018 - CATS members gave the following talks at the M2D Conference 2018, Cambridge: Leonard Smith 'Beyond forecasting: using today's model(s) to forewarn decision makers,' Abstract; Erica Thompson 'From questions to models to decisions: dialogue to support effective use of simulation modelling,' AbstractTalk slides/audio; Ed Wheatcroft 'Beyond Bayes: utilising yesterday's forecast,' Abstract; and 'Model discrepancy in football prediction,' Talk slides/audio.

7 June 2018 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Imaginative insights or flights of (forecast) fantasy?' at Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2018), 5-9 June 2018, Reading. Abstract.

17 April 2018 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Prediction, predictability and probability: a dynamical systems view' at Virginia Tech, USA. 

14 March 2018 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Seeing through our models: rethinking the aims of operational forecasting' as part of the Distinguished Speaker Series, Computational Modeling and Data Analytics, Virginia Tech, USA. Abstract.

5 March 2018 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Diffusion, deviation and divergence: limits to predictability in nonlinear systems' at the APS March Meeting 2018, 5-9 March 2018, Los Angeles, California. Abstract.

27 February 2018 - Leonard Smith gave a pop-up talk on 'Analysis under uncertainty for decision makers: what do decision makers want from the analytical community?' at the Decision Framing and Uncertainty Network Workshop, CEP Imperial College London.

21 February 2018 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Anticipating anticipation: improving decision support today and tomorrow by reconsidering the aims and limits of weather prediction' at ECMWF, Reading. Abstract.

15 February 2018 - Nick Watkins gave a talk entitled 'Mandelbrot, 1/f and The Mind's Eye' at the Santa Fe Institute. Abstract. Watch the talk

30-31 January 2018 - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 8th Annual Climate Science Day meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.

8-12 January 2018 - Henry Wynn attended and was on the organising committee for 'Key UQ methodologies and motivating applications', the first of four workshops for the 'Uncertainty quantification for complex systems: theory and methodologies' Programme, 3 January - 29 June 2018, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge. 

2015 - 2017


14 November  2017 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Why the weather forecasts of the future forecast will not forecast the future' for the Lorentz Center Highlights 'This Week's Discoveries' series, Lorentz Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands. Abstract.

7 November 2017 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Challenges in making useful Forecasts and Predictions' at the Oceans of Knowledge 2017 Conference, London. Abstract.

1 November 2017 - Leonard Smith gave a seminar on 'How the theory of nonlinear dynamics impacts the simulation of everything' at the Centre for Extragalactic Astronomy, University of Durham. Abstract.

18 October 2017 - Leonard Smith will be giving an invited talk entitled 'Reconsidering the aims of weather prediction, again' at Numerical Modeling, Predictability and Data Assimilation in Weather, Ocean and Climate: A Symposium Honoring the Legacy of Anna Trevisan, 17-20 October 2017, Bologna, Italy. Abstract.

2 October 2017 - Leonard Smith and Dr Gavin Schmidt had a debate entitled 'Analyst, Advocate or Activist: how can a scientist support (good) climate policies?', LSE.

21 September 2017 - Leonard Smith gave a presentation entitled 'Is Box 3 Empty? Addressing Challenging Decisions' at the 1st CRUISSE Network Conference - Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: How can academics help real-world decision-making?, 21-22 September 2017, UCL. Abstract.

7 September 2017 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Against the wind with Bob: wishing I knew I couldn't know then what I know I can't know now. (Rethinking the aims of simulation forecasting)' at Rosnerfest - a 70th birthday celebration for Robert Rosner, 7-8 September 2017, University of Chicago.

21 August 2017 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Science, simulation and insight: developing confidence when extrapolating complicated complex systems' at the SAMSI CLIM Opening Workshop, Durham, North Carolina, USA. Abstract.

3 August 2017 - Leonard Smith and Hailiang Du gave an invited talk entitled 'Rising above chaotic likelihoods' at JSM 2017, 29 July-3 August 2017, Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Abstract.

13 July 2017 - Erica Thompson, David Tuckett and David Good gave an invited talk on 'The CRUISSE Approach' at the M2D 1st Annual Conference 2017, 11-14 July 2017, Exeter. 

30 May 2017 - Leonard Smith gave a Special MEAS/Physics Seminar entitled 'Prediction, predictability and insight: from the lab to the globe' at NC State University, North Carolina, USA. Abstract.

20-21 March 2017 - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 7th Annual Climate Science Day meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.

15 March 2017 - Leonard Smith gave a lecture entitled 'Coping with deep uncertainty: jellyfish, super-storms and nuclear stewardship', as part of LSE Works, LSE. AbstractWatch the lecture.

6 February 2017 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Prediction, predictability and probability: a dynamical systems view' at the University of Durham. Abstract.

30 January 2017 - David Stainforth and Mark Roulston were speakers at Winton Capital's 'Creating a Climate Prediction Market' event, London.


14 December 2016 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Chaos in weather forecasting' at the Royal Meteorological Society 'Chaos and Confidence in Weather Forecasting' meeting at Imperial College London. Abstract.

10 November 2016 - Leonard Smith took part in the Oxford University Press (OUP) Second Oxford Philosophy Festival 'speed dating' event, which aimed to answer the question 'What's Philosophy got to do with...Anything?', 7-12 November 2016, Blackwell's Bookshop, Oxford.

14 September 2016 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'The Bayesian Way: imprecision and ambiguity' at the 'Data-Intensive Science and Technologies' workshop, Science and Technology Facilities Council, Didcot, UK.

22-24 August 2016 - Leonard Smith participated in a workshop on 'Limits to Prediction' at the Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico.

4 August 2016 - Leonard Smith was a discussant at the JSM 2016, 30 July-4 August 2016, Chicago.

3 August 2016 - Henry Wynn gave a talk entitled 'The LCM filtration for the cut distribution of networks and its dual' at the JSM 2016, 30 July-4 August 2016, Chicago.

18 July 2016 - Ed Wheatcroft gave a presentation entitled 'The central role of data assimilation in probabilistic forecasting' at the 5th International Symposium on Data Assimilation, 18-22 July 2016, University of Reading.

7 July 2016 - Ed Wheatcroft gave a talk entitled 'Gauging limitations of imperfect model prediction with sculpted ensembles' at the CliMathNet Conference 2016, 5-8 July 2016, Exeter. Abstract.

7 July 2016 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Useful prediction with imperfect models: probability, odds and JEDI foresight' at the 'Prediction of high impact weather and climate - the role of model error' workshop, at the RMetS/NCAS 'High Impact Weather and Climate' Conference, 6-8 July 2016, University of Manchester.

5-8 July 2016 - Nick Watkins presented a poster entitled 'Fact versus formula in the power spectra of complex systems' at the CliMathNet Conference 2016, Exeter.

22 June 2016 - Leonard Smith gave two talks entitled 'Sculpted Ensembles: exploiting a modern data assimilation technique to enhance early warning of high impact events' Abstract, and 'Prediction, Projection and Probability: quantifying uncertain scientific insights regarding the far future' Abstract, at the 36th International Symposium on Forecasting (pdf), 19-22 June 2016, Santander, Spain.

21 June 2016 - Ed Wheatcroft gave a talk entitled 'Moving beyond Bayes: On the combination of probabilistic forecasts given imperfect models' at the 36th International Symposium on Forecasting (pdf), 19-22 June 2016, Santander, Spain. Abstract.

15-16 June 2016 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'From termites and penguins to blocking and the Andes: interpreting models of the earth system' at the Alpine Summer School 'Cross-Scale Interactions in the Coupled Geosphere-Biosphere System', Valsavarenche, Aosta Valley, Italy.

21 May 2016 - Nick Watkins gave a talk on '(A)phantasia and SDAM: personal, scientific and human perspectives' at the Eye's Mind: Visual Imagination, Neuroscience and the Humanities Conference, 21-22 May 2016, Sainsbury Centre for Visual Arts, UEA, Norwich. Talk slides. Audio.

6 May 2016 - Leonard Smith gave a presentation entitled 'Pragmatic Predictability (in the real world)' at the Computation Institute, University of Chicago.

16 March 2016 - Dr Ralph Rayner was a Co-Chair on the organising committee of the 'Catch the Next Wave' Conference 2016, Royal Institution, London.

13-18 March 2016 - CATS was involved in organising a workshop entitled 'Improving the Quantitative Interpretation of Simulation Models' at the Banff International Research Station, Canada.

23 February 2016 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Just Enough Decisive Information: flexible response via GLIMPSE' and took part in the 'Global perspectives: risk and uncertainty roundtable' at the Flood and Coast 2016: Risk, Resilience and Response in a Changing Climate Conference, Telford. Talk slides.

9-10 February 2016 - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 6th Annual Climate Science Day 2016 meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.


21 October 2015 - Leonard Smith talked about building confidence at the 'Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution' workshop for the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee, Washington DC.

8 October 2015 - Leonard Smith gave a keynote talk entitled 'Doing science in the dark' at the 3rd National eScience Symposium, Amsterdam.

6-10 September 2015 - Members of CATS gave the following talks at a mini symposium at the Dynamic Days Europe Conference, Exeter. Leonard Smith 'Pragmatic Bayes: embracing with model inadequacy in nonlinear dynamical systems' and 'Data assimilation: what is the point?'; David Stainforth 'On quantifying the local climate response in observations and models'; Ed Wheatcroft 'On the chance of rain: probability forecasts in an operational setting' and Hailiang Du 'Data assimilation for imperfect models'. 

2 September 2015 - Leonard Smith hosted a discussion on 'Five factions of forecasters: how climate science suffers from disharmony amongst the Mathematical Sciences', Computation Institute, University of Chicago.

9-11 July 2015 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Pragmatic Bayes: towards extracting insight, if not numbers, from models which neither V nor V' at the 'How to build trust in computer simulations towards a general epistemology of validation' Conference, Hannover, Germany. Abstract.

7-10 July 2015 - David Stainforth co-organised a session and presented two posters and a talk at the 'Our Common Futures Under Climate Change' Conference, Paris.

7-9 June 2015 - David Stainforth gave a presentation at the workshop on 'Assessing the Climate via Models, Prediction, Understanding, and Simulation Modeling' at the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies, Bielefeld University, Germany.

2 June 2015 - Ofer Engel gave a presentation with Professor Jeff French entitled 'How to make district heating and cooling matter to citizens and communities' at the CELSIUS social marketing event, Rotterdam.

14-15 May 2015 - David Stainforth was co-organiser of a workshop on 'Advancing Integrated Assessment Modeling' in Dartington, Devon, part of the EPSRC ReCoVER network. 

23 April 2015 - Ofer Engel gave a presentation entitled 'Heating and cooling in the European energy transition: the role for district heating and cooling' at the CELSIUS node group meeting at the Greater London Authority.

25 March 2015 - David Stainforth gave a lecture entitled 'Confidence from uncertainty: separating what we know from what we don't know about climate change', at the 'Galerkin Methods with applications in weather and climate forecasting' workshop at the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh.

10-11 February 2015 - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 5th Annual Climate Science Day 2015 meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.

30 January 2015 - Nick Watkins gave a seminar entitled 'Madelbrot's other model of 1/f noise, and why it still matters' at MPIPKS, Dresden.

28 January 2015 - Erica Thompson gave a talk entitled 'The mystery of the missing (probability) mass: understanding what the IPCC actually said about climate in 2100' at the 'Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty' Conference, London.

5 January 2015 - Leonard Smith gave an invited keynote talk entitled 'Anticipating equilibrium systems (clarity before consensus)' and David Stainforth gave a presentation at the 'Non-equilibrium Dynamics of Climate: linking models to data' workshop 5-7 January 2015, Dartington Hall, Devon. 

2012 - 2014


19 December 2014 - Nick Watkins gave an invited talk entitled 'Balancing fact and formula in the science of complex systems: the example of 1/f Spectra' at the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco.

15-19 December 2014 - Hailiang Du gave two poster presentations entitled 'Examining model fidelity via shadowing time' and 'Increasing foresight and forecast quality with skillful low-cost empirical models' at the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco.

7 December 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a keynote talk on 'Weather as a changing climate' at the 'Health, Energy and Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' Seminar 6-9 December 2014, Bad Honnef, Germany.

6 December 2014 - Nick Watkins gave an invited talk entitled 'Mandelbrot's other model of 1/f Noise: can history help us with today's topics like weak ergodicity breaking?', at the 4th workshop on Anomalous Diffusion, Hugo Steinhaus Centre, Wroclaw, Poland.

4 December 2014 - Roman Frigg gave a seminar talk entitled 'An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the Case of UKCP09' at IHPST, Paris, France.

1-5 December 2014 - David Stainforth was one of the organisers of the 'Climate Variability: from Data and Models to Decisions' workshop at the Lorentz Centre, Leiden, Germany. Leonard Smith gave a talk at the workshop on the theme of decision making under uncertainty on 4 December 2014.

1 December 2014 - Nick Watkins gave a seminar entitled 'Mandelbrot's Eyes and 1/f Noise', at the Pure and Applied Mathematics Colloquium, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The Open University.

26 November 2014 - Erica Thompson gave a seminar on '2050 Global Calculator preview: challenges of providing climate information for decision-makers', for the Grantham Workshop Seminar Series.

8 November 2014 - Roman Frigg and Erica Thompson gave a talk entitled 'Using evidence to inform good climate policy decisions' at the PSA 2014 Biennial Meeting Symposium: What kind of climate evidence does climate policy really need?, Chicago.

29 October 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Doing science in the dark: the challenges of climate-like science' at the Rotman Institute of Philosophy (Western University, Canada) Library Speaker Series on Climate Change: The Philosophical Issues, London, Ontario. Abstract.

26 October 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Clarity before consensus' at the Rotman Institute of Philosophy (Western University, Canada) 'Knowledge and Models in Climate Science' Conference 24-26 October 2014.

15 October 2014 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'Climate change and intergenerational justice' at the Rotman Institute of Philosophy (Western University, Canada) Library Speaker Series on Climate Change: The Philosophical Issues, London, Ontario.

10 October 2014 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'Local high-resolution climate projections: why a multi-model approach doesn't help', 'Multi-model approaches in the sciences' at the Boston Colloquium for Philosophy of Science, Boston University.

15,17 & 19 September 2014 - Roman Frigg presented a three-part lecture series on 'The science of climate change: a three-part crash course', at the Rotman Institute of Philosophy, University of Western Ontario, London/Ontario, Canada.

10 September 2014 - Erica Thompson gave a talk on 'From model-world to reality: interpreting the IPCC probability assignments' at the IESP Workshop on Environmental Modeling, 8-12 September, Germany.

20 August 2014 - Erica Thompson gave a talk on 'Limitations of modelling climate control: are simulation results adequately informative? at the Climate Engineering Conference 2014.

19-22 August 2014 - Henry Wynn gave an invited talk at the 21st International Conference on Computational Statistics, Geneva, Switzerland.

2-7 August 2014 - Leonard Smith was an invited co-author for a panel discussion entitled 'Treatment of uncertainty in climate change assessments' at JSM 2014, Boston. Abstract.

30 July 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Distinguishing uncertainty, diversity and insight' at the NCAR Uncertainty Colloquium 24 July-2 August, Boulder, Colorado, USA. Abstract.

28 July 2014 - Nick Watkins gave a talk entitled 'Complexity, tails and trends...' at the 8th International Workshop on 'Long-term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere' 2014, Clare Collage, Cambridge.

7 July 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Parameters, Probabilities and Progress' at the 2014 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, MA, USA. Abstract.

30 June-4 July 2014 - Roman Frigg gave a lecture entitled 'Evidence-based policy in the face of uncertainty' at the Understanding Risk Forum 2014 on the theme 'Producing Actionable Information', University College London.

22 May 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'The Decay of Information: in theory and in practice' at the Scientific and Statistical Computing Seminar, University of Chicago. Abstract.

20 May 2014 - Erica Thompson gave a talk on 'Visualising uncertainty in the DECC 2050 Global Calculator' at the NERC PURE Associates Showcase event, Royal Academy of Engineering.

19-22 May 2014 - Henry Wynn was on the Committee of the Illinois Institute of Technology Conference on Algebraic Statistics 2014, Chicago.

8 May 2014 - Erica Thompson's poster 'The Hawkmoth Effect' was selected for inclusion in the LSE Research Festival 2014 Exhibition.

27 April-2 May 2014 - Nick Watkins and David Stainforth gave presentations at the EGU General Assembly 2014, Vienna. Nick Watkins' presentations were entitled 'On the surprising robustness of the surplus run length and size ratio formulae, and their application to bursts in natural time series' Abstract; 'Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed and long-range dependent Processes' Abstract. David Stainforth gave three presentations: 'Putting the weather back into climate' Abstract; 'How big should a climate model ensemble be? Lessons from a low dimensional system' Abstract;  'User-relevant, threshold-specific observations of climate change' Abstract.

22 April 2014 - Ralph Rayner led the organisation of 'Small Sea Changes Big Coastal Impacts', a workshop on coastal hazards, The Explorers Club, New York.

31 March-3 April 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a talk at the SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification in Savannah, Georgia, USA. The talk was entitled 'Pseudo-orbit data assimilation and the roles of uncertainty in multi-model forecasting'. Abstract.

30 March-4 April 2014 - Nick Watkins gave a presentation entitled 'On the surprising robustness of the surplus run length ratio formula, and its application to extreme bursts in time series from natural complex systems', and a poster entitled 'Bayesian analysis of non-Gaussian long-range dependent processes' at the German Physical Society Spring Meeting, Dresden. Abstract. Poster abstract.

21 March 2014 - David Stainforth gave a talk on 'Searching for robust information in climate change science', as part of the EED Seminar Series, Kings College, London.

11-13 March 2014 - Ralph Rayner led the organisation of 'Oceanology International', a multi strand conference on marine technology and its applications, London.

11 March 2014 - Leonard Smith spoke at the CPNSS Workshop 'Rethinking Theory Construction in Social Science', LSE.

10-12 March 2014 - David Stainforth gave two talks: 'Mapping observed adaptation - relevant changes in locate climate' and 'Quantifying climate science uncertainty: from model ensembles to expert elicitation,' at the Adaptation Frontiers: Conference on European climate change adaptation research and practice, Lisbon.

10 March 2014 - Ralph Rayner led the organisation of a one-day conference 'Catch the Next Wave' at the Royal Academy of Engineering on future technologies and the fostering of cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral innovation. After the conference Ralph spoke at a Foundation for Science and Technology debate at the Royal Society, on the topic of 'turning knowledge into value - adding value to the marine sector from research and innovation.'

10 March 2014 - Keith Beven gave an invited talk on 'How to make decisions about future water when there is still so much we do not know?', University of Lausanne, Switzerland.

6 March 2014 - David Stainforth was on a panel at the 'Rhyme and Reason: reflections on climate change' event, LSE.

18 February 2014 - Leonard Smith was invited to attend a one-day meeting in Washington on the urgent problem of finding new ways to fund and implement long-term climate observations. The meeting was organised by Jim Baker (NOAA), Carl Wunsch (Harvard/MIT), Ray Schmitt (WHOI) and Ralph Keeling (SIO).

13-17 February 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Confounding solid science and uncertain modelling: improving climate policy modelling' at the AAAS Annual Meeting 2014, Chicago. 

12 February 2014 - David Stainforth gave a seminar entitled 'Searching for robust information in climate change science' at Imperial College, London.

6-7 February 2014 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'The user made me do it: seamless forecasts, higher hemlines and credible computation' at the 'Climate Science Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions' Workshop, GeorgiaTech, Atlanta, USA. David Stainforth gave a presentation entitled 'Getting More from Observations for Adaptation Planning'.

28-29 January 2014  - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 4th Annual Climate Science Day 2014 meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.

21 January 2014 - Keith Beven gave a talk on 'Observational Uncertainties' at the NERC PURE CREDIBLE/RACER Consortium Meeting.

19-25 January 2014 - Dr Ofel Engel and Professor Peter Abell's visited Gothenburg as part of the CELSIUS project. See media coverage: The CELSIUS Insider,  Vårt Göteborg.

14 January 2014 - David Stainforth gave a talk entitled 'Risk in Climate Models' at a Grantham Research Institute workshop called 'Risk Management and Climate Change' held at the Law Society.

13 January 2014 - David Stainforth gave a short talk at an FCO organised meeting at the Royal Society, hosted by Brian Hoskins, with a delegation of Chinese scientists from China's Expert Committee on Climate Change.

10 January 2014 - Roman Frigg gave an invited lecture on 'Chaos beyond the Butterfly Effect: the poison pill of structural model error', Center for Advanced Studies, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.

9 January 2014 - David Stainforth was an invited participant in the CliMathNet policy group meeting which links this climate maths network with policy makers.

9 January 2014 - Keith Beven gave an invited talk on 'Epistemic uncertainty and environmental model' at the NERC workshop 'Statistics for Environmental Evaluation: Quantifying the environment', Glasgow. 

8 January 2014 - Nick Watkins gave a talk on 'Some work in progress on bursts in complex systems', Applied Mathematics Informal Seminar, Mathematics Department, UIT, Tromso, Norway.

8 January 2014 - Roman Frigg gave an invited lecture on 'Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices', SimTech Colloquium, University of Stuttgart, Germany.


17 December 2013 - Nick Watkins gave an invited seminar on 'The surprising robustness of the surplus run length ratio formula, and its application to bursts from natural complex systems' at MPIPKS, Dresden.

16-18 December 2013 - Leonard Smith and David Stainforth attended the '(Re)Thinking National Climate Scenarios' Workshop, Reading. Leonard Smith gave a talk on '(Pre)Thinking National Science Contracts which Request Science Beyond the Pale'. David Stainforth gave a talk entitled 'Painting Pictures of the Future'.

9-13 December 2013 - Leonard Smith was invited to give the Charney Lecture at the AGU Fall Meeting 2013, San Francisco. The lecture was entitled: 'Predictability, Probability(s) and Physical Insight'. Abstract. For a list of other CATS abstracts see CATS at AGU 2013.

6 December 2013 - Keith Beven gave a keynote talk on 'On uncertainty and probability in predicting natural hazard risks using models' to the ecorisQ association General Assembly 2013, Geneva.

3-4 December 2013 - Leonard Smith was invited to participate in a limited two-day workshop assessing uncertainties for extrapolations, Las Vegas. The workshop goal was to flesh out principles and approaches for quantifying uncertainty in extrapolative, model-based predictions, and included a field trip to the Nevada National Security Site.

29 November 2013 - Keith Beven gave an invited talk on 'Hazard, risk and epistemic error: examples from floods and climate change' to the Centre for Natural Disaster Studies Annual Academy Meeting, Uppsala, Sweden.

21 November 2013 - Erica Thompson gave an invited seminar on 'Statistical challenges in climate research' to the Statistics Department of Queen Mary, University of London.

19 November 2013 - David Stainforth was an invited panel member at the Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) 2nd Annual General Assembly 2013 'Decision Making in the Twilight of Uncertainty', Aston University, Birmingham.

1 November 2013 - Erica Thompson gave an invited talk at 'The roles of climate models: epistemic, ethical, and socio-political perspectives' Workshop, Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands.

31 October-1 November 2013 - Leonard Smith participated in 'The roles of climate models: epistemic, ethical and socio-political perspectives' Workshop, Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands.

25 October 2013 - Jim Baker gave a presentation on the science of near-term climate extremes at a symposium on 'Rising Temperatures and Emerging Threats: the Intersection of Climate Change and National Security in the 21st Century', Vermont Law School in South Royalton, Vermont. The proceedings will be published in the Vermont Journal of Environmental Law later in the year.

17 October 2013 - Keith Beven gave the Leonardo Lecture 'Facrs of Hydrology- epistemic error, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication' at the 'Facets of Uncertainty' 5th European Geophysical Union Leonardo Conference, Greece.

11-12 October 2013 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of his Apprentices' at the 'Probabilistic Modelling in Science and Philosophy' Conference, Bern, Switzerland.

7 October 2013 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk on 'Types of uncertainty, kinds of probability, and (re)designing climate simulation from scratch' at 'The role of oceans in climate uncertainty' workshop, 6-11 October 2013, Banff International Research Station (BIRS), Canada. Watch the talk.

4 October 2013 - Keith Beven gave a Benchmarks in Hydrology seminar and workshop on uncertainty estimation for environmental models, University of Saskatoon.

29 September-3 October 2013 - Keith Beven gave a keynote address at GeoMontreal 2013.

24 September 2013 - Erica Thompson gave a presentation on 'Designing climate model experiments for decision relevance' at the 'Frontiers in climate change economics and policy research: taking stock, moving forward', at the Royal Society, London.

23 September 2013 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices', at Fudan University, Shanghai.

20 September 2013 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'What do we owe to future generations? Climate change and intergenerational justice', at Renmin University, Beijing.

19-20 September 2013 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk 'On the use and abuse (and rational interpretation) of probability forecasts' at the 'Forecasting, Monitoring, Controlling: Dealing with a dynamic world' workshop, UCL. Erica Thompson presented a talk on 'The Hawkmoth Effect in forecasting, monitoring and controlling complex dynamic systems.' Abstracts.

18 September 2013 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'What do we owe to future generations? Climate change and intergenerational justice', at China Agricultural University, Beijing.

16-20 September 2013 - Nick Watkins gave two talks entitled 'Why is it useful to treat the magnetosphere as a complex system?' and 'Anomalous diffusion, anomalous time series, and the models that describe them' at an International Space Science Institute workshop on 'Self-organized criticality and turbulence', Bern, Switzerland.

8-20 September 2013 - Ewelina Sienkiewicz presented a poster on 'How to quantify the predictability of a chaotic system?' at the NCAS Climate Modelling Summer School, Oxford.

10 September 2013 - Leonard Smith gave a plenary talk on 'Challenges for decision-makers facing uncertainty' at the NERC PURE Associates workshop, Oxford. 

2-7 September 2013 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Aims and means of supermodeling by cross-pollination in time: or "Probably not a probability forecast"' at the SUMO Summer School of the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Ohrid, Macedonia. Watch the talk. Talk slides.

31 July 2013 - Erica Thompson presented a seminar on 'Why climate science is difficult' at the London Mathematical Laboratory.

8-12 July 2013 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk on 'Dynamic probabilities, mature probabilities, and the links between data assimilation and ensemble forecasting in actual decision support' at the Davos Atmosphere and Cryosphere Assembly, Switzerland. Abstract.

1-12 July 2013 - Roman Frigg was a lecturer on the Vienna International Summer University 2013: Climate Studies. He delivered five lectures on different aspects of climate change.

1-5 July 2013 - Nick Watkins spoke at the CliMathNet Conference 2013. His talk was on 'Compound extremes and bunched black (or grouped grey) swans'. Abstract.

1-4 July 2013 - Reason Machete gave a talk entitled 'Defective probabilistic forecasts: comforting the perplexed' at the 26th European Conference on Operational Research: The Forecasting Stream, Rome.

1-3 July 2013 - Pauline Barrieu gave a plenary lecture at the 17th International Congress on Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Copenhagen.

24-26 June 2013 - Pauline Barrieu gave a plenary lecture at AFIR-ERM Colloquium, Lyon.

17-21 June 2013 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Predictability, uncertainty, and physical insight' at the workshop ‘Methods of Chaos Detection and Predictability: Theory and Applications (MCDPTA13)’ at the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden.

17-20 June 2013 - Emma Suckling and Hailiang Du presented at the 2013 SIAM Conference on Mathematical and Computational Issues in the Geosciences, Padova, Italy.  Du’s talk was entitled ‘Pseudo-Orbit Data Assimilation for Atmospheric GCMs', Abstract.  Emma’s talk was entitled ‘Pseudo-Orbit Gradient Descent for Lagrangian Data Assimilation', Abstract

17-18 June 2013 - Leonard Smith, David Stainforth, Erica Thompson and Ewelina Sienkiewicz took part in a closed workshop at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency led by Professor Arthur Petersen; they formed part of a panel of earth science experts who reflected on the way uncertainty is characterised in the 'Final Government Distribution' of the Summary of Policymakers (SPM) for the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC assessment report.

14 June 2013 - Nick Watkins gave a poster at the IRDR 3rd Annual Conference, UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction.

20 May 2013 - Erica Thompson gava a talk on 'Attitudes towards Uncertainty: the perspective of a physical scientist' at the Sigma Club, LSE.

24 April 2013 - Erica Thompson gave a talk to a school group, in West Hampstead, who invited her to counter their Geography teacher's climate sceptic viewpoint!

18 April 2013 - Jim Baker gave a presentation on the Climate Extremes report at a World-Wide Human Geography Data Working Group meeting on Sustainable Development for Human Security at the Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York.  

15-19 April 2013 - Erica Thompson, Leonard Smith and Edward Wheatcroft attended the 91st European Study Group with Industry, University of Bristol.  

15-19 April 2013 - David Stainforth and Ewelina Sienkiewicz attended the 'Workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models', Met Office, Exeter.

7-12 April 2013EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna.  Leonard Smith presented a short course: 'Predictability in Theory and Predictability in Practice'. Ewelina Sienkiewicz presented a poster by A.S. Jarman and L.A. Smith. Nick Watkins gave four presentations. Nick Watkins and David Stainforth co-authored two presentations given by Sandra Chapman. Abstracts. See CATS at EGU 2013.

3 April 2013 - Ana Lopez was invited to a seminar on 'Developing Adaptation Strategies under uncertainty', in the Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Buenos Aires.

26 March 2013 - Pauline Barrieu spoke at the 'Extremes and Model Uncertainty - A Multidisciplinary Workshop', Imperial College.

21-22 March 2013 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk on 'Unpopular essays of Juergen Kurths: practicalities and predictability' at the Nonlinear Data Analysis and Modeling: Advances, Applications, Perspectives Conference, Potsdam, Germany. Abstract.

19 March 2013 - Erica Thompson gave a talk to a community group in Buckinghamshire on the subject of 'Climate Change: what we know and what we don't know'.

18-20 March 2013 - Swenja Surminski hosted and chaired two science-practitioner sessions (session with science-practitioners interactions): ‘uncertainty and decision making’ and ‘Challenges to respond to loss and damage of climate change’ at the European Adaptation to Climate Change (ECCA) Conference, Hamburg. Swenja Surminski also presented on ‘role of private sector in adaptation’. Ana Lopez gave a talk entitled  'Loss and damage: a physical science perspective', and David Stainforth and Nicola Ranger participated in a panel discussion entitled: 'Addressing Uncertainties in National Adaptation Strategies.' Synthesis Report.

14 March 2013 - Nick Watkins gave an invited talk on 'Bunched Black Swans and the British Antarctic Survey' to the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Annual Meeting 2013

13 March 2013 - David Stainforth gave a presentation on 'Equipping users while maintaining the credibility of science at the EQUIP workshop: 'Strengthening resilience through improved treatment of uncertainty in weather, climate and impacts' at the Royal Society. Talk slides.

27 February 2013 - Jim Baker gave a presentation on the national security implications of the Climate Extremes report at a Climatedesk conference in Washington DC.

26-27 February 2013 - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 3rd annual Climate Science Day 2013 meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC. The purpose is to provide a non-partisan opportunity for scientists of many disciplines to build relationships and provide Members of Congress access to the best possible climate science information.

25-27 February 2013 - Ana Lopez presented a statement entitled 'Are loss and damages climate stressors attributable to global warming?', at the UNU-EHS 'Perspectives on Loss & Damage: Society, Climate Change, and Decision Making' Conference, Bonn, Germany.

14-18 February 2013 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk on 'Two-way communication with decision makers on uncertainties of climate science' at the AAAS Annual Meeting 2013, Boston. Abstract.

5 February 2013 - David Stainforth gave a seminar entitled: 'How big an ensemble do we need to quantify the climate of a climate model?', University of Chicago.

11 January 2013 - Nick Watkins gave a presentation on 'Dissipative and Non-dissipative Models for Correlated Wild Fluctuations in Complex Geosystems' at the NeSEE Conference, Reading. Presentation slides


3-7 December 2012 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Queuing the wrong U?' at the AGU Fall Meeting 2012, San Francisco. Abstract. Talk slides. He also delivered a talk with CATS Research Officer Emma Suckling, entitled 'Increasing the relevance of GCM simulations for Climate Services'. Abstract. Talk slides.

December 2012 - Swenja Surminski gave an invited presentation on ‘risk engineering’ at the Meeting of the Working Group of the Climate Risk and Insurance (CR+I) Project of the Geneva Association, Zurich. Partner: industry.

21 November 2012 - Swenja Surminski led the LSE/Munich Re academic symposium on ‘Insurance in emerging markets: determinants of growth and the case of climate change?’ Symposium proceedings

12-16 November 2012 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Guidance, information or probability forecast: where do ensembles aim?' Abstract. Talk slides. Emma Suckling gave a talk entitled 'The Pseudo-orbit Gradient Descent Ensemble Data Assimilation Method' at the International Conference on Ensemble Methods in Geophysical Sciences, Toulouse, France.

12-13 November 2012 - Swenja Surminski gave an invited key note on role of private sector in adaptation at the Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) 1st Annual General Assembly 2012 ‘Supporting the Journey to Adaptation’, Aston University, Birmingham.

8-12 October 2012 - Leonard Smith gave a keynote speech entitled 'Predictability and Understanding of Our Climate Risk: Approximations, Bugs and Insight' at the 8th IEEE International Conference on eScience, Chicago. Abstract. Talk slides.

4-5 October 2012 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk on 'Probabilistic prediction without probabilities' at the Royal Society Theo Murphy International Scientific Meeting on ‘Handling uncertainty in weather and climate prediction, with application to health, agronomy, hydrology, energy and economics'. Abstract.

25 September 2012 - Swenja Surminski gave an invited presentation on 'Climate risks, loss & damage, and insurance: what are the legal needs?' on legal and regulatory issues stemming from the loss and damage framework under the UNFCCC at A4ID ‘Lawyers Eradicating Poverty’ Climate Change Knowledge Group on What's the Damage? Loss, and Microinsurance, London.

10-12 September 2012 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Preface to rational resource allocation in operational forecasting' at the Ensemble Design Workshop, NCAR, Colorado. Talk slides.

6-17 August 2012 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Distinguishing uncertainty, diversity and insight' at the NCAR workshop 'Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach', Boulder, Colorado. Abstract.

25 June 2012 - Leonard Smith was a featured speaker at the 32nd Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Boston. His talk was entitled 'Predictability and Insight: Contrasting the achievable aims of forecasting in weather like cases and climate like cases'.

18-29 June 2012 - David Stainforth gave a series of lectures at the LSE Executive Summer School on 'Climate Change: Economics and Governance'.

9 June 2012 - Roman Frigg gave a keynote talk on ‘Clouds over Climate Modelling’ at the Bristol Graduate Conference on Philosophy and Climate Change, University of Bristol.

6 June 2012 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Minimising Model "Misuse": communicating both imprecision and inadequacy in uncertainty management' at the 'Implications for Insurance of Model Dependency and Misuse' event at Lloyd's Old Library, London. The event was organised by the Financial Services Knowledge Transfer Network (FS KTN) and the Lighthill Risk Network. Abstract.

1 June 2012 - Reason Machete, Visiting Fellow to CATS, gave a talk entitled 'Inflation forecasting: approaching the calibration mirage', Bank of England, London. Abstract.

30 May 2012 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'Die Kurzsichtigkeit Chaotischer Modelle' ('The myopia of chaotic models'), University of Bern, Switzerland.

17-18 May 2012 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled ‘Extreme modelling, extreme theories, extreme statistics and the understanding of rare, unusual, or extreme events’ at the Aggregation, Inference and Rare Events in the Natural and Socio-economic Sciences event, University of Warwick.

13-18 May 2012 - Ana Lopez gave a keynote talk on ‘Developing adaptation strategies under uncertainty: An example from the water sector’ in the Climate Change – Planning for Adaptation session at the IWA World Congress on Water, Climate and Energy, Dublin, Ireland.

22-27 April 2012 - CATS presented talks and posters at the EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria.

29 March 2012 - Ana Lopez gave a talk on ‘Using climate models to inform adaptation of climate change’, and held a debate with Professor Suraje Dessai in the annual Earth System Sciences Spring School, Southampton.

15 March 2012 - Professor Michael Ghil presented a lecture at CATS entitled 'Coupled dynamic modelling of the economy and of the climate system' as part of the Munich Re programme on Evaluating the economics of climate risks and opportunities in the insurance sector. Abstract.

9 March 2012 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Probability Forecasting: looking under the hood and at the road ahead' at the Oxford University Mathematical Geoscience seminar. Abstract.

26-28 March 2012 - Swenja Surminski presented a technical report on methods and tools for loss and damage assessment at the UNFCCC expert meeting on assessing the risk of loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, Tokyo.

15 March 2012 - Emma Suckling gave a talk entitled 'Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide decision relevant skill?', University of Reading. Abstract.

8 March 2012 - Swenja Surminski participated in a panel discussion at the Colloquium on disaster risk transfer and adaptation at the French Senate, Paris. She outlined insurance and adaptation examples from developing countries and the developed world. 

1 February 2012 - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 2nd Annual Climate Science Day, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.

February 2012 - Jerome Ellepola gave a talk entitled 'The Process Synthesis Tool: Optimum decision steering in a complex process space-GTL’. Abstract.

28 January 2012 - Leonard Smith gave the Keynote Presentation ‘When does Radical Uncertainty call for Regime Change?’ for the Rationality and Decisions Research Network Workshop: ‘Radical Uncertainty’, Munich, Germany. 2014conf

2009 - 2011


22 November 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Real-world challenges to data assimilation and uncertainty quantification in big nonlinear models' at the Special Statistics Colloquium, University of Chicago. Abstract.

24-28 October 2011 - CATS/Munich Re Programme Visiting Professor Arthur Petersen was on the organizing committee of a workshop entitled 'Error in the Sciences: Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Rectifying Measures', The Lorentz Centre in Leiden, Netherlands.

5-8 October 2011 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'Climate forecasting with chaos or chaos in climate forecasting?' at the EPSA 2011 Conference, Athens. 

6-13 August 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Scientific Support for Climate Policy: Is a VVUQ analysis of today's models helpful? And where not: what then?' at the ICIS workshop 'Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Across Disciplines', Park City, Utah. Abstract.

19-26 July 2011 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Insight of Numbers? Distinguishing Climate Science from Climate' at the climate science symposium organised by the Société de Philosophie des Sciences. The symposium was affiliated to the 14th Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Nancy, France. 

15 July 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Model error and data assimilation' at the Monsoon School on Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Data Assimilation, DARP, Bangalore, India. Watch the lecture.

14 July 2011 - Emma Suckling gave a talk entitled 'Gradient descent assimilation for the point-vortex model' at the Monsoon School on Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Data Assimilation, DARP, Bangalore, India. 

11-12 July 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'The geometry of data assimilation in maths, physics, forecasting and decision support' and 'The geometry of data Assimilation 2: gradient descent (GD) and indistinguishable states importance sampler (ISIS)' at the Monsoon School on Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Data Assimilation, DARP, Bangalore, India. Watch the lectures.

7-8 July 2011 - Oliver Walker presented a talk entitled 'Reasoning about Unawareness: A Decision Theoretic Account' at the 5th 'Decisions, Games and Logic' Workshop, Maastricht.

21 June 2011 - Ralph Rayner organised the workshop 'Sweet Sea Observations: how Great Lakes observations can work for you', Edison Boat Club, Detroit, USA.

26 May 2011 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk 'What (and who) do ensembles of climate models inform?' at the Current Challenges in Climate Modelling 2011 Workshop, 26-27 May 2011, University of Uppsala, Sweden. 

25-27 May 2011 - Hailiang Du gave a talk entitled 'Nowcasting via Gradient Descent: Moving from Theory towards Reality' at the Predictability + Data Assimilation Conference, NORDITA (Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics), Stockholm. 

17-20 May 2011 - David Stainforth presented 'Seeking and Extracting Relevant Information: Linking Natural Science, Social Science and Policy' at the Colorado Conference on Earth System Governance: Crossing Boundaries and Building Bridges, Colorado State University, USA.

3 April 2011 - Leonard Smith presented 'Insight or numerical Engineering? The Role of Simulation Modeling in Quantitative Decision Support' at the Midas Conference on Epistemology of Modeling & Simulation: Building Bridges Between the Philosophical and Modeling Communities, 1-3 April 2011, University of Pittsburgh.  

23 March 2011 - Trevor Maynard gave a seminar entitled 'Modelling insurance markets: value of seasonal weather forecasts' at Cass Business School, London.

16 March 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'All models are wrong but some are dangerous: philosophical aspects of statistical model selection' at the 'All models are wrong...' workshop, Groningen, Netherlands, 14-16 March 2001. Abstract.

24-25 February 2011 - Swenja Surminski presented 'The Implications of Climate Model Uncertainty for Insurance and Adaptation Decision Making' at the Law and Economics of Natural Hazards Management in a Changing Climate seminar, Innsbruck.  

23 February 2011 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Contrasting Weather Prediction, Climate Projection and Scientific Insight: Can technical aspects of Data Assimilation tell us about the Decision Relevance of Models?', at The Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London. Abstract.

17 February 2011 - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 1st Climate Science Day meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.

14 February 2011 - Henry Wynn gave a seminar entitled 'Use Algebraic methods to study complex experimental designs' at European Centre for Living Technology, Venice.

14 February 2011 - 'Climate Forecasting with Chaos, or Chaos in Climate Forecasting', a public lecture given by Roman Frigg, Philosophy@LSE, London.

10-11 February 2011 - Swenja Surminski gave a talk entitled 'Adaptation to climate extremes: Investigating the role of the private sector - the case of the insurance industry' at 'Economics of Natural Disasters - Bridging Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation Efforts and Strategies' workshop, Venice.  

3-4 February 2011 - Swenja Surminski presented 'Cat Risk Management: An Academic perspective - current research efforts within the industry and academia' at 'Cat Risk Management: Modelling, measuring, managing and minimising cat risk', London.

19 January 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Justifying Complexity and Expense to Decision Makers' at the 'Equipping society for climate change through improved treatments of uncertainty conference', EQUIP Conference, Leeds. See CATS Posters presented at this event.


13-17 December 2010 - Nicola Ranger presented 'Revisiting the generation and interpretation of climate information for adaptation decision making' at the AGU Fall Meeting 2010, San Francisco. Talk slides.

22 October 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Scientific modelling in support of decision making: skill and value, nonlinearity and credibility' at the Climate Decision Making Center, Carnegie Mellon University. Abstract.

12 October 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Toward decision-relevant probability distributions: Communicating ignorance, uncertainty and model-noise' at the International Underwriting Association's Catastrophe Modelling 2010 Seminar.

6 October 2010 - Hailiang Du presented a talk entitled 'Nowcasting with Indistinguishable States', Data Assimilation Research Centre, University of Reading. Talk slides.

12-16 July 2010 -  CATS presentations at the 11th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology (IMSC), Edinburgh.

11-14 July 2010 - Max Fehr and Pauline Barrieu organized two sessions for the 'Energy and Emissions Markets' stream of the Euro XXIV (24th European Conference on Operational Research), Lisbon. Max also gave a talk 'Option Pricing in the European Unions Emission Trading Scheme'. Abstract.

10-12 June 2010 - Arthur Petersen (joint with Leonard Smith) presented a workshop paper  'Reframing the reliability of models: moving from error to quality for use' at the ESF workshop 'Exploring Epistemic Shifts in Computer Based Environmental Sciences', Aarhus University, Denmark.

10 June 2010 - Thomas Stemler gave a seminar presentation entitled 'Stochastic Modelling of Deterministic Systems', LSE. Abstract.

7-11 June 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Extracting insight from predictions of the irrelevant: can the diversity in our models inform our uncertainty of the future?' at the 28th International Conference on Mathematical Geophysics Modelling Earth Dynamics: Complexity, Uncertainty and Validation, Pisa. Abstract.

27-31 May 2010 - David Stainforth presented 'Climate Prediction: Lessons from Simple Non-Linear Systems' at the Birkeland Workshop on Complex Natural Systems, Tromso, Norway. He also presented 'Climate Change: Controversy, Communication and Debate' at an evening outreach session. Abstract.

13 May 2010 - Arthur Petersen (Munich Re Visiting Professor) presented 'Improving the IPCC's uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses', LSE. Abstract.

7-9 May 2010 - Leonard Smith presented a plenary talk 'The Bayesian's Burden: Non-linear Models, Probability and Insight', at the Models & Simulations IV Conference, University of Toronto.

2-7 May 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Can we expect to predict the climate when we cannot shadow the weather?' at the EGU General Assembly 2010, Vienna. Abstract.

26-28 April 2010 - Leonard Smith and Pauline Barrieu presented 'Examining Uncertainties In Climate Models: Forecasting The Impact Of Best And Worst Case Climate Scenarios On The Future Of The ILS Market' at the 2nd ILS Summit Europe, Le Meridien Picadilly, London.

9-10 April 2010 - Max Fehr presented 'Modeling Emission Trading Schemes' at Industrial-Academic Forum on Commodities, Energy Markets, and Emissions Trading, Fields Institute, Toronto. Talk slides.

9 April 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'The Bayesian's Burden: Or Why Physicists Shrug and Statisticians Scoff (as the Earth warms)" at NCAS/NERC Earth System Science Summer School, York.

8 April 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Getting beyond the statistics: Towards Quantifying the Geometry of Model Error' at RMetS meeting on Estimating/representing forecast and model errors, Met Office, Exeter.

22 March 2010 - Leonard Smith and Nicholas Stern presented 'Uncertainty, Ambiguity and Risk in Forming Climate Policy' at Handling uncertainty in science, Royal Society, London. Abstract.

16 March 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Climate Models: current science and common sense' at the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Lecture, chaired by Professor Nancy Cartwright - part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science, LSE. Abstract.

12 March 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Using Empirically Inadequate Models to inform Your Subjective Probabilities: How might Solvency II inform climate change decisions?' at Oxford Maths Institute meeting on 'Climate: Methods for Model Comparison and Criticism in the context of data assimilation', Oxford.

24 February 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Translating Seasonal Forecasts into Year Ahead Hurricane Numbers: The Outlook and Some Recent Advances in ENSEMBLES' at Environmental Risk Management workshop (NERC + Maths KTN), Lloyds.

18 February 2010 - Leonard Smith presented (with comments by Roman Frigg) 'Causation and explanation in our nonlinear world' at Barcelona Conference on Causality and Explanation in Physics, Biology and Economics. Abstract.

17-19 February 2010 - David Stainforth presented 'Challenges in the Extraction of Decision Relevant Information from Multi-Decadal Ensembles of GCMs' at SAMSI workshop on Climate Change. Abstract.

3 February 2010 - Leonard Smith, Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley presented 'Decision-Making with Climate Models' at LSE Choice Group seminar, LSE. Abstract.

28-29 January 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Examining Uncertainties In Climate Models: Forecasting The Impact Of Best And Worst Case Climate Scenarios On The Future Of The ILS Market' at 7th Insurance Linked Securities (ILS) Summit, New York.

25-29 January 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Evaluating high dimensional models given only a few observations: Anomalies, re-analyses and reality' at the workshop Exploring Complex Dynamics in High-Dimensional Chaotic Systems: From Weather Forecasting to Oceanic Flows (ECODYC10), MPIPKS, Dresden.

13-15 January 2010 - David Stainforth presented 'Difficulties in Deriving Forecast Probabilities From General Circulation Models and Efforts to Estimate Uncertainty in Future Climate projections' at 'Nonstationarity, Hydrologic Frequency Analysis and Water Resource Management' workshop, Boulder, Colorado and the EQUIP launch meeting. Abstract.


15 December 2009 - AGU Fall Meeting 2009, San Francisco - Leonard Smith presented 'Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative Use Guidance: Communicating deep-uncertainty and model-noise' (Contributed talk). David Stainforth presented 'The Search for Relevant Climate Change Information to Support Adaptation Decision Makers: Lessons from Reductionism, Emergence and the Past' (Contributed talk). David Stainforth also presented 'Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Climate Change: Extracting Robust Information from Perturbed Physics Ensembles' (Contributed talk).

9-10 December 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Using Ensemble Prediction Systems to improve risk management in the Energy Markets' at Weather Challenges for the Energy Market, Berlin.

16 November 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Poster title 1: On Weighting Seasonal Models' and 'Poster title 2: Evaluating Model Skill Relative to a Dynamic Climatology' at Ensembles Final Symposium, Exeter.

4-6 November 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Data Assimilation for Earth System Models: What's the Point?' at WCRP-CLIVAR: Initialization of Earth System Models for Decadal Predictions, at KNMI, Utrecht. Workshop final report.

15 October 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Toward Decision-Relevant Probability Distributions: Communicating Ignorance, Uncertainty, and Model-Noise' at Defra/Met Office, Royal Society/RMetS meeting on the science of the UK Climate Projections.

28-30 September 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'One Two Three More: Challenges to Describing a Warmer World' at the '4 degrees and beyond' Conference, Oxford.

13-16 September 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Experimental Design and Interpretation of Policy-relevant Climate Model Ensembles' at the SAMSI 2009-10 Program on Space-time Analysis for Environmental Mapping, Epidemiology and Climate Change, Opening workshop on Climate Change.

27 August 2009 - Leonard Smith (with David Stainforth, Ana Lopez and Edward Tredger) presented 'Climate Models and their Information Content for the Insurance Industry' to the ABI Climate Change Data Seminar. Talk slides.

3 August 2009 - Leonard Smith (with David Stainforth, Ana Lopez and Edward Tredger) presented 'Data Assimilation: what's the point?' at American Statistical Association/JSM, Washington DC.

31 July 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'When might a climate model prove fit for purpose? Expected Uncertainty-or-Big Surprise' at the Dynamics and Statistics in Weather and Climate Workshop, Max Planck Institute, Dresden. Abstract.

20 July 2009 - Leonard Smith (with Ana Lopez, David Stainforth, Ed Tredger and Roman Binter) presented 'How does the diversity in our models inform us about the uncertainty in our future?' at Symposium I of the Munich Re programme of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy: Interpreting Models in a Climate Change Context, London. Objectives and other talks of Symposium I.

16 June 2009 - Visegrad Summer School Lectures, Budapest.

16 April 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Seeing through our models: coping with an inconvenient ignorance in a changing climate' at Cutting Edge Lecture, McGill University.

14 April 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Risk and Uncertainty: Understanding the Limits of Predictability' at GEOSS Small Sea Change: Big Business Impacts Meeting, Washington DC.

16 February 2009 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'You don't have to believe everything you compute' at the NERC/Maths KTN joint workshop on 'Statistical modelling of weather, climate and weather risks for insurance' at Lloyds of London Old Library.

10 February 2009 - Leonard Smith gave evidence to the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 'Uncertainty in Climate Projections' - a day of discussion supporting the RCEP study on 'Adapting the UK to Climate Change', Met Office, Exeter.

2006 - 2008


10-14 November 2008 - Leonard Smith was an invited keynote speaker at 'Extreme events: theory, observation, modeling and prediction' Conference, Palma de Mallorca.

3-4 November 2008 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Communicating Uncertainties for those insuring future climate change' at the 'Insuring Future Climate: Preparing and Acting Today' Conference, Oslo. AbstractTalk slides.

22-24 September 2008 - Leonard Smith gave the invited keynote speech 'Improving Predictions of Climate Change: living with an inconvenient ignorance' to the conference 'Climate change impacts and adaptation: Dangerous rates of change', University of Exeter.

24 January 2008 - Professor Leonard Smith gave a seminar on 'Model error, real world risk: probabilistic pathways but probably not probabilities'. It was part of a seminar series on ‘Risk in the 21st Century’, Oxford University.


25-29 June 2007 - Leonard Smith presented a poster entitled 'On the impact of NUMB weather on science, society and operational forecasting centres', at the 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, Utah. Poster abstract.

15-20 April 2007 - CATS members gave a number of presentations at the EGU General Assembly 2007, Vienna. CATS at EGU 2007Poster.

12-13 April 2007 - Leonard Smith presented a poster at the MSRI Symposium on Climate Change: from global models to local action, Berkeley, USA. Leonard Smith presented a talk: 'Valued foresight or useless arithmetic: extrapolation models in the service of decision support and policy'. 

29 January-2 February 2007 - Leonard Smith with Jochen Broecker and Hailiang Du gave two presentations: 1. Ensemble forecasts: an introduction to their statistics, value and application and  2. Forecasting with the NAG Board: results and winners at the ECMWF 3rd International Verification Methods Workshop, Reading, UK, sponsored by WMO/WCRP/WWRP/COST.


27 November 2006 - Leonard Smith led a session on 'Bayesian physics and decision support in climate-like modelling', SAMSI. Programme and abstract.

16-21 July 2006 - Leonard Smith and CATS Visiting Research Fellows, Professor Nigel Harvey and Dr David Stainforth, participated as members of a roundtable discussion at the WMO Climate Risk Conference, entitled 'Living with Climate Variability and Change', Espoo, Finland. For further information see Media.  

16 June 2006 - Leonard Smith contributed to the workshop: 'Applying complex modelling techniques to sustainability challenges', at the European Commission in Brussels. Summary notes.

11-16 June 2006 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Insights from a century of forecast errors: the evolving role of nonlinearity in operational forecast systems', at the '20 years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences' Conference, Rhodes, Greece. Abstract. CATS Visiting Research Fellow, Kevin Judd, gave a talk on 'Weather forecasting: it's about dynamics, it's not about statistics'. 

16 May 2006 - Members of CATS presented a day of seminars and a roundtable discussion at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), focussing on insights gained from experiences with ECMWF forecasts. Programme.

20-21 April 2006 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'On the risks of miscommunicating risk in decision support and policy', at the 'Environmental Hazards and Risk Communication' Conference, Royal Society, London. Abstract.

4 April 2006 - Leonard Smith delivered a keynote address 'Why I'm not a Bayesian' at the Schlumberger Workshop, Oxford.

8 March 2006 - Leonard Smith gave a talk: 'Seeing through geophysical models: moving beyond naive realism', at the science seminar 'Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Arctic', British Embassy, Stockholm. Abstract.

13-15 February 2006 - Leonard Smith presented a talk entitled 'The Energy Industry' at the WWRP/THORPEX Scientific Conference, 'Improving the Global Predictability of High Impact Weather And a review of Southern Hemisphere Plans for THORPEX', Cape Town, South Africa. Programme.

2 February 2006 - Leonard Smith presented seminars on 'Decision Making' for graduate students of the l'Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie on a training course entitled: 'Observer, Prévoir, Décider: Météorologie science de l'ingénieur' in Toulouse, France. Seminar ASeminar BSeminar C.

1 February 2006 - NAPSTER (Nonlinear Analysis and Prediction Statistics from Timeseries and Ensemble-forecast Realisations): project presentation by Dr Liam Clarke, London. Abstract.

31 January 2006 - Leonard Smith presented a discussion on 'Assessing, managing, and perhaps attempting to prevent risk' at the Oikos International Roundtable 'Meeting the Risk of Climate Change: Management or Prevention?', LSE, London. Talk slides.

Talks prior to 2006


19 December 2005 - Leonard Smith 'Towards intuitive measures for real-world verification of ensemble forecasts (or: How much does a hi-resolution model run add to an ensemble?)', Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA. Abstract.

14 December 2005 - Leonard Smith 'Betting on the forecast: methods for risk management, information identification, and resource allocation in an ensemble weather prediction system', Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), USA. Abstract.


6-10 December 2004 - Liam Clarke 'How can we best combine forecasts for added value?', 1st THORPEX International Science Symposium, Montreal, Canada. Abstract. Talk slides.

17 September 2004 - Anna Andrianova 'Better risk management through improved empirical insight', 'Risk and Regulation: Research Student Conference', CARR, LSE, London. Abstract.

4-7 July 2004 - 24th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF), Sydney, Australia.

2 July 2004 - Workshop on Forecasting and Applications, Brisbane, Australia.

25 May 2004 - Liam Clarke 'Detecting unstable periodic orbits from data streams', Oxford. Abstract.

25 May 2004 - Liam Clarke 'Finding unstable periodic orbits in experimental data', Oxford.

24-28 May 2004 - 9th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology (IMSC), Cape Town, South Africa.

11-13 May 2004 - Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting. Contribution to the IPCC Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty and Risk, County Kildare, Ireland.

20 May 2004 - Milena Cuellar 'Parameter estimation', Wokingham, UK. Abstract.

25-30 April 2004 - CATS members gave various presentations at the EGU 1st General Assembly 2004, Nice, France. See CATS at EGU 2004.

WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) Feedback Workshop


November 2003 - Anna Andrianova 'Ensemble random analog prediction method and testing ERAP using fake weather data', Statistics Seminar Series, LSE, London. Abstract.

28 November 2003 - Milena Cuellar 'Parameter estimation of chaotic time series', London. Abstract.

24 November 2003 - Milena Cuellar 'Performance of MCMC techniques on surrogate data', Oxford. Abstract.


6-10 December 2002 - AGU Fall Meeting 2002, San Francisco, USA.

2-3 December 2002 - DEMETER 2002, Paris.

26 November 2002 - Milena Cuellar 'Bayesian Inference for Deterministic Systems', Oxford. Abstract.

1 October 2002 - NERC FREE (Forecasting Risk From Extreme Events) Town Meeting, London.

27 September 2002 - Milena Cuellar 'Performance of MCMC Techniques for Parameter Estimation of Non-linear Dynamical Systems', North Carolina, USA.
















RT @CRUISSE_RCUK: Registration is now open for the CRUISSE Network Conference 2018! Click to link to book your place or send a submission:…

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RT @ECOPOTENTIALprj: New #ECOPOTENTIAL study on forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions. The past weeks have…

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