Climate change’s heat tax on the UK’s labour force and economy

This short research briefing presents the results of a rapid analysis of a nationally-representative survey of nearly 2,000 working adults across the UK that sought to find out how the heatwave in June 2026 affected their work. The authors estimate this single heatwave could have cost the UK more than £1 billion in lost output.

Core findings

• The average reported reduction in hours worked across the week of 22 June 2026 attributed to the heatwave was 0.47 hours.
• This would suggest approximately 16 million lost hours in a working population of 34.4 million – given that the sample is nationally representative.
• These lost work hours are equivalent to a cost of £0.77 billion to the economy, assuming whole-economy output (gross value added) to be £48 per hour worked (ONS, 2023).
• Those working in jobs more highly exposed to heat and that are physically demanding, in sectors such as construction and agriculture, reduced their hours by more than those working in low-exposure and physically-undemanding jobs such as academia.
• About 3.6% of respondents, equivalent to approximately 1.25 million workers in the population as a whole, said they did not work at all that week because of the heat. This is equivalent to an additional 8 million lost hours, at an estimated cost to the economy of £0.38 billion.
• Combined, the reduced hours and the full days not worked come to about 24 million lost hours, or approximately £1.15 billion of lost output in a single severe heatwave week. This impact in lost output is on top of the negative impacts on workers’ health and increased pressure on health services.
• These numbers could be an underestimate of the actual impact, partly because they do not include the effect of reduced efforton productivity and output. One-third of the respondents reported their effort dropped due to the heat, though to measure the economic impact requires a different data collection approach.
• The survey also highlighted health impacts, with 87% of workers reporting at least one health-related impact during the week of 22 June 2026, ranging from disrupted sleep and being more tired at work through to a small number of workers reporting more extreme symptoms including dizziness or fainting and a faster heartbeat.
• Overall, the results point to a country that remains insufficiently adapted to the changing climate, with implications for both workers’ health and the economy.

DOI: 10.21953/researchonline.lse.ac.uk.00140309