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6:30 pm

Simon Huttegger (UC, Irvine): “Rethinking Convergence to the Truth”

27 January 2021, 6:30 pm8:00 pm
Online via Zoom

The martingale convergence theorem implies that in certain situations a Bayesian agent is sure to converge to the truth in the limit. Gordon Belot has argued that this constitutes a liability for Bayesian epistemology since it ignores the many ways in which one might fail to identify truth in the limit. In this talk I will study convergence to the truth within a nonstandard probability framework that allows fine-grained distinctions between infinite hypotheses. Within the nonstandard framework, convergence to the truth is expected only for hypotheses that can be finitely approximated. Importantly, this leads not to a revision but a refinement of the standard martingale convergence theorem.

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