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Simon Huttegger (UC, Irvine): “Rethinking Convergence to the Truth”
27 January, 6:30 pm – 8:00 pm
This event will take place online via Zoom.
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Abstract: The martingale convergence theorem implies that in certain situations a Bayesian agent is sure to converge to the truth in the limit. Gordon Belot has argued that this constitutes a liability for Bayesian epistemology since it ignores the many ways in which one might fail to identify truth in the limit. In this talk I will study convergence to the truth within a nonstandard probability framework that allows fine-grained distinctions between infinite hypotheses. Within the nonstandard framework, convergence to the truth is expected only for hypotheses that can be finitely approximated. Importantly, this leads not to a revision but a refinement of the standard martingale convergence theorem.
Simon Huttegger is Chair of the Department of Logic and Philosophy of Science at the University of California, Irvine. His research interests include game and decision theory, philosophy of science, the foundations of probability, the theory of measurement, and the philosophy of biology.