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Cost-Benefit Analysis of Early Pharmaceutical Intervention in Prediabetic Populations in Kuwait

In collaboration with Kuwait University (KU)

LSE PI: Dr Magdalena Walbaum
KU PI: Dr Hamad Ali
Duration: 1 September 2026 - 1 March 2028

Type 2 diabetes is one of the defining health and development challenges facing Kuwait, where the four major non-communicable diseases were estimated to cost approximately KD 1.6 billion annually, equivalent to 3.9% of GDP. Much of this burden is absorbed downstream, once diabetes is established and complications begin to accumulate. Prediabetes identifies a large population at elevated risk years before irreversible complications emerge, yet Kuwait currently has no structured policy on early pharmacological intervention at this stage.

This project aims to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness, affordability and net economic benefit of early metformin-based intervention for adults with prediabetes in Kuwait, compared with current practice.

The research combines a cost-of-illness analysis, a lifetime Markov decision-analytic model, and a budget impact analysis to test whether earlier low-cost treatment reduces larger future liabilities. It moves beyond general support for prevention to a practical assessment of whether metformin should be targeted at higher-risk individuals or implemented more broadly through primary care. The study will also produce a reusable analytical framework for evaluating future prevention and chronic disease policies in Kuwait, with relevance across Gulf health systems facing similar metabolic disease burdens.

This project forms part of Kuwait Programme, funded by the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Science (KFAS).

(C) Image from Olive Arabia

Principal Investigators:

  • Magdalena Walbaum

    Magdalena Walbaum | Principal Investigator

    Magdalena Walbaum is a Research Fellow within CPEC. Her main research interests focus on the economics surrounding health and long-term care, mental health, and their policy implications. Magdalena holds an MSc in Cardiorespiratory Rehabilitation and a PhD in Epidemiology, Public Health, and Health Economics, both from University College London, and an MSc in Health Economics from the University of York.

  • Hamad Ali | Co-Principle Investigator

    Hamad Ali is a leading genomic medicine expert with a specialisation in chronic kidney diseases, particularly autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and diabetic nephropathy. He serves as an Associate Professor at Kuwait University and the Dasman Diabetes Institute, and currently holds a visiting scientist appointment at the Mayo Clinic’s Division of Nephrology and Hypertension. His research bridges genomics and clinical medicine, using next-generation sequencing and exosome profiling to uncover novel biomarkers and disease-modifying variants.