The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on the South Caucasus has been neither linear nor uniform. The war has ushered in a period of interregnum between the earlier regional order and one whose features are yet to emerge. It has shifted political dynamics within the three states of the South Caucasus and has affected the interests and positions of external actors, altering the regional balance of power. In all three countries in the region, the interregnum has amplified trends that predated the war: it consolidated Azerbaijan’s assertive foreign policy, reinforced Armenia’s striving for emancipation from Russia, and accelerated Georgia’s drift away from the West. While Türkiye took advantage of Russia’s distraction from the region and fostered its position in the South Caucasus, the shift in the status quo in the region has penalised Iran’s regional interests. Throughout the last three years, the South Caucasus has witnessed the receding influence of the US and the EU, and the expansion of China’s geoeconomic footprint.
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The Changing Face of the South Caucasus
Meet the Author
Teona Giuashvili is David Davies of Llandinam Research Fellow (DINAM) in the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. She is a former Georgian diplomat with over eleven years of experience in multilateral diplomacy and conflict resolution, Georgia’s European integration and bilateral relations with France. She served as chargée d’affaires and deputy ambassador of Georgia to France and as deputy head of the mission of Georgia to the EU.