How does wartime violence influence support for different possible peace settlements?
Does exposure to violence lead citizens to take a hard-line approach to any peace settlements? Or does it make them more open to peace to make the violence stop? To answer these questions, we conducted a series of surveys and survey experiments in Ukraine in July of 2022 looking at which types of peace deals are considered acceptable, and which are considered betrayal by the Ukrainian people. First, we show in observational data and with a survey experiment that Ukrainians are flexible on certain issues, but others are considered red lines and not up for negotiation. Second, and contrary to the idea that conflict hardens attitudes, we find that exposure to violence leads Ukrainians to be more amenable to negotiations with Russia. We further show that these findings about conflict leading to more support for negotiation are robust to a variety of different specifications and types of violence.
Tolga Sinmazdemir is a Senior Lecturer in Political Methodology in the Department of Politics and International Studies at School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). His research focuses on political conflict and violence, with a special focus on the Middle East. His goal is to identify causes and consequences of conflict through rigorous analysis of original data. Currently, he is studying Syrian refugee flows into neighbouring countries and host society attitudes towards Syrian refugees. Before joining SOAS, he worked as an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Bogazici University, Istanbul, and spent a year as a fellow in the School of Public Policy at LSE. Tolga holds a Ph.D. in Politics from New York University. He is a member of Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP), which is a global research network of scholars doing experimental research.
Denisa Kostovicova is an Associate Professor in Global Politics at LSE European Institute.