Hugo de Almeida Vilares

Hugo de Almeida Vilares

PhD Candidate in Economics

Department of Economics

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English, Portuguese
Key Expertise
Labour Economics

About me

Research interests
Labour Economics (primary)
Applied Microeconometrics (secondary)

Job market paper
Who’s got the Power? Wage Determination and its Resilience in the Great Recession

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Most OECD countries have witnessed remarkable increases in wage inequality, with the main exception of the Southern European countries. This paper develops and implements a dynamic search and matching model, where sector bargaining widely prevalent in Continental Europe is explicitly introduced. We use a comprehensive longitudinal employer-employee data on Portugal for the last two decades, and its defined collective bargaining rankings of workers. We find that wage determination has synchronized a notable stability of worker bargaining power at the bottom of the skill distribution, with a perennial erosion at the middle and the top. These trends led to wages becoming more reliant on sectoral bargaining, increasing its decoupling from firm productivity. This transition contributed to a compression of the wage distribution and to a downward trend of assortative matching in the market. These findings are resilient even in the context of the Great Recession, highlighting the importance of the labour market institutions and its dynamics in shaping wage inequality outcomes.

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Publications and additional papers

Union Membership Density and Wages: The Role of Worker, Firm and Job-Title Heterogeneity
Conditionally accepted in Journal of Econometrics, 2021

We examine the association between union density and wages in Portugal where just 10 percent of all workers are union members but nine-tenths of them are covered by collective agreements. Using a unique dataset on workers, firms, and collective bargaining agreements, we examine the union density wage gap in total monthly wages and its sources - namely, worker, firm, and job-title or `occupational' heterogeneity - using the Gelbach decomposition. The most important source of the mark-up associated with union density is the firm fixed effect, reflecting the differing wage policies of more and less unionized workplaces, which explains two-thirds of the wage gap. Next in importance is the job-title fixed effect, capturing occupational heterogeneity across industries. It makes up one-third of the gap, the inference being that the unobserved skills of workers contribute at most only trivially to the union density wage gap. In a separate analysis based on disaggregations of the total wage, it is also found that employers can in part offset the impact of the bargaining power of unions on wages through firm-specific wage arrangements in the form of the wage cushion. Finally, union density is shown to be associated with a modest reduction in wage inequality as the union wage gap is highest among low-wage workers. This result is driven by the job-title fixed effect, low-wage workers benefiting more from being placed in higher paying `occupations.'

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Unions and Collective Bargaining in the Wake of the Great Recession: Evidence from Portugal
British Journal of Industrial Relations, 2017

Against the backdrop of its industrial relations architecture, characteristic of the 'southern European group' and intimately linked to the recommendations of the Troika, this paper examines four key aspects of Portuguese collective bargaining. First, it provides definitive estimates of private sector union density for that nation. Second, it models the determinants of union density at firm level. Third, it yields estimates of the union wage gap for different ranges of union density. The final issue examined is contract coverage. The received notion that the pronounced reduction in the number of industry-wide agreements remaining largely unaffected by the economic crisis. The reduced frequency of new agreements and extensions is instead attributed to downward nominal wage rigidity in low-inflation regimes.

The Last Dance? Credit Cycles and Labour Market Adjustments throughout the Downturn

The Great Recession in Continental Europe sparked a Great Unemployment Divergence, led by a catastrophic job destruction in some countries. To study such phenomena, I resort to a Bewley-Hugget-Aiyagari incomplete-markets model with an indirect search frictional labour market as in Krusell et al. (2010). I complement it with: (a) financial constraints à la Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), (b) labour market dualism in employment protection, and (c) downward real wage rigidity, and I show that a catastrophic job destruction phenomena can take place in the presence of medium to severe aggregate negative and temporary productivity shocks, leading to a costly process of destruction of inter-temporally viable existing jobs - a last dance phenomena. For that outcome, the initial leverage positions of firms and the management of liquidity along the downturn are critical, and can justify divergent paths in unemployment. In a calibration to portray the Portuguese economy, no intervention would imply an elasticity between the initial downturn and the unemployment rate of close to 1 for initial downturns of more than 5-6 percent. In such context, several balanced-budget policies targeting the liquidity in permanent contracts are considered, and they prove to be capable to alleviate sizably the job destruction mechanism.

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