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Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS)

How to contact us

Centre for the Analysis of Time Series
Tower 1, 11th Floor
London School of Economics and Political Science
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE


Tel: +44 (0) 20 7955 6015
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7955 7416
Email: Lyn Grove|



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Welcome to the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS) at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

'An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate model'|
A new paper by Emma Suckling and Leonard Smith presents an evaluation of probabilistic decadal hindcasts from state-of-the-art climate models and demonstrates the use of empirical benchmark models to assess and track improvements in climate model performance. As state-of-the-art models continue to improve they are expected to outperform simple empirical benchmarks on these timescales, however the paper shows that today's best available models do not yet do so. Supplementary material|.

'Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions'|
A new paper by David Stainforth, Sandra Chapman and Nick Watkins that presents a translation of observations of weather into observations of climate change at local scales. The paper shows how the distributions of daily temperatures have changed shape over the last half century. Such information is likely to be valuable in planning adaptation measures. Published in Environmental Research Letters. Video-abstract|

'Variations on Reliability: Connecting Climate Predictions to Climate Policy'|
A new paper by Leonard Smith and Arthur Peterson, forthcoming in Boumans, M., Hon, G. and Petersen, A.C. (ed.), Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice, London: Pickering & Chatto, 2014.

'Delivering and Evaluating Multiple Flood Risk Benefits' (or 'Blue-Green Cities')| CATS is part of a new EPSRC-funded project led by the University of Nottingham (Colin Thorne). The project aims to develop novel ways of driving new, resilient urban forms and fabrics through delivering measures to manage flood events sustainably while enhancing urban life; providing scope for radical solutions under new build; and, realising possibilities for improving existing performance through retrofit and urban renewal.

'On predicting climate under climate change'| 
A new paper by Joseph Daron and David Stainforth
explores issues in the design and interpretation of climate model ensembles. The results suggest that today’s Global Climate Model ensembles may be too small to make robust statements of probability on multi-decadal timescales, even within their own "model worlds". Published in Environmental Research Letters.