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Centre for the Analysis of Time Series

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Centre for the Analysis of Time Series
Tower 1, 11th Floor
London School of Economics and Political Science
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE

 

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7955 6015
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7955 7416
Email: Lyn Grove|

 

 

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Welcome to the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS) at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Joseph Daron and David Stainforth have won the 2014 Lloyd's Science of Risk runner-up Prize in the category of Climate Change for their paper 'Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate|', published in Climate Risk Management.

CATS Director Leonard Smith quoted in Science article 'A touch of the random|' by Colin Macilwain which discusses deterministic versus stochastic techniques for climate modelling

'An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate model'|
A new paper by Emma Suckling and Leonard Smith presents an evaluation of probabilistic decadal hindcasts from state-of-the-art climate models and demonstrates the use of empirical benchmark models to assess and track improvements in climate model performance. As state-of-the-art models continue to improve they are expected to outperform simple empirical benchmarks on these timescales, however the paper shows that today's best available models do not yet do so. Supplementary material|.

'Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions'|
A new paper by David Stainforth, Sandra Chapman and Nick Watkins that presents a translation of observations of weather into observations of climate change at local scales. The paper shows how the distributions of daily temperatures have changed shape over the last half century. Such information is likely to be valuable in planning adaptation measures. Published in Environmental Research Letters. Video-abstract|

'Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy'|
A new paper by Leonard Smith and Arthur Peterson in Boumans, M., Hon, G. and Petersen, A.C. (ed.), Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice, London: Pickering & Chatto, 2014.

'On predicting climate under climate change'| 
A new paper by Joseph Daron and David Stainforth
explores issues in the design and interpretation of climate model ensembles. The results suggest that today’s Global Climate Model ensembles may be too small to make robust statements of probability on multi-decadal timescales, even within their own "model worlds". Published in Environmental Research Letters.
Video-abstract|