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Centre for the Analysis of Time Series

How to contact us

Centre for the Analysis of Time Series
Tower 1, 11th Floor
London School of Economics and Political Science
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE


Tel: +44 (0) 20 7955 6015
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7955 7416
Email: Lyn Grove



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Welcome to the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS) at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

'An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09'
A new paper by Professor Roman Frigg, Professor Leonard Smith and Dr David Stainforth, published in Synthese.

Professor Leonard Smith and Dr Erica Thompson contributed to the making of the recent BBC Four 'Climate Change By Numbers' programme that aimed to clarify all the important questions around climate change by honing in on just three key numbers.

New online tool helps businesses, governments and individuals explore low  carbon worlds
Dr Erica Thompson was the lead climate scientist for the project, which draws on the latest scientific results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to highlight the range of possible impacts resulting from different energy choices. Read DECC press release here

Professor Leonard Smith submitted two impact case studies to REF2014: 'Improving weather forecasts to avoid disruption, damage and disaster' and ‘Ensuring the best science-based predictions of climate change’. See the film of the weather case study here.
Joseph Daron and David Stainforth won the runner-up prize in the 2014 Lloyd's Science of Risk Prize in the category of Climate Change for their paper 'Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate', published in Climate Risk Management.

CATS Director Leonard Smith quoted in Science article 'A touch of the random' by Colin Macilwain which discusses deterministic versus stochastic techniques for climate modelling

'An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate model'
A paper by Emma Suckling and Leonard Smith presents an evaluation of probabilistic decadal hindcasts from state-of-the-art climate models and demonstrates the use of empirical benchmark models to assess and track improvements in climate model performance. As state-of-the-art models continue to improve they are expected to outperform simple empirical benchmarks on these timescales, however the paper shows that today's best available models do not yet do so. Supplementary material.

'Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions'
A paper by David Stainforth, Sandra Chapman and Nick Watkins that presents a translation of observations of weather into observations of climate change at local scales. The paper shows how the distributions of daily temperatures have changed shape over the last half century. Such information is likely to be valuable in planning adaptation measures. Published in Environmental Research Letters. Video-abstract

'Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy'
A paper by Leonard Smith and Arthur Peterson in Boumans, M., Hon, G. and Petersen, A.C. (ed.), Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice, London: Pickering & Chatto, 2014.

'On predicting climate under climate change' 
A paper by Joseph Daron and David Stainforth
explores issues in the design and interpretation of climate model ensembles. The results suggest that today’s Global Climate Model ensembles may be too small to make robust statements of probability on multi-decadal timescales, even within their own "model worlds". Published in Environmental Research Letters.