Trade in Turbulent Times: Tracking Customs Evasion, Sanctions, and Tariff Effects with Trade Data

Abstract:

In a context marked by geopolitical tensions and a renewed use of trade restrictions, international trade poses both risks and opportunities for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Sound and timely monitoring of trade flows is therefore crucial to support informed policy decisions.

This presentation introduces the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and illustrates how it helps policymakers track trade developments and identify emerging risks. It presents the main data sources used for this purpose, including customs information and international trade statistics produced by Eurostat and the United Nations, and shows how combining them improves the timeliness and reliability of trade intelligence.

The talk highlights how this analytical work supports concrete policy needs. In particular, it shows how trade data analysis can help authorities detect practices such as duty evasion through under-invoicing, monitor compliance with sanctions on Russia, and assess the global effects of tariffs introduced by the United States, including risks of trade diversion and dumping.

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