Joe Horton (UCL): Newcomb Problems and Unstable Decisions

Abstract: There has recently been a surge of interest in a new kind of decision theory, which we can call Hindsight Decision Theory (HDT). Its proponents include Ralph Wedgwood, J. Dmitri Gallow, Abelard Podgorski, and David James Barnett. They argue that HDT avoids problems with both Evidential Decision Theory (EDT) and Causal Decision Theory (CDT). I here argue that the main problem with EDT, known as the Newcomb Problem, also applies, with no less force, to HDT. I then offer a novel defence of CDT, and I end by clarifying the relationship between my defence and the idea of deliberation dynamics.

Joe Horton is an Associate Professor at the Philosophy Department at UCL.

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