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Jason Konek (Bristol): “Accuracy for Sets of Almost Desirable Gambles”
24 March, 6:30 pm – 8:00 pm
This event will take place online via Zoom.
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Please note that these events are routinely recorded, with the edited footage being made publicly available on our website and YouTube channel. We will only record the audio, the slides and the speaker and will not include the Q&A section. However, any question asked during the talk itself will feature in the final edit.
Abstract: This talk will introduce a new class of “IP scoring rules” for sets of almost desirable gambles – a fairly general imprecise probability framework. Much like precise probabilities, sets of almost desirable gambles are alethically evaluable. More carefully, a set of almost desirable gambles D is evaluable for what might be called generalised type 1 and type 2 error. Generalised type 1 error is roughly a matter of the extent to which D encodes false judgments of desirability. Generalised type 2 error is roughly a matter of the extent to which D fails to encode true judgments of desirability. Our IP scoring rules assign a single “alethic penalty” to D on the basis of both type 1 and type 2 error. After exploring some properties of these scoring rules, I will provide preliminary results suggesting that Peter Walley’s axioms of coherence for sets of almost desirable gambles can be justified by an accuracy dominance argument.