James Joyce (Michigan): “Experts and Accuracy”

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Abstract: This is work in progress. My goal is to explain the relationship between (i) viewing some source of probabilistic information (say about objective chances) as an “epistemic expert” to be emulated, and (ii) assessing that source for expected credal accuracy. I will argue that some central aspects of the theory of epistemic experts can be explained in terms of accuracy, e.g., the “pecking order” among experts. I will also argue that epistemic experts can serve as “proxies” for truth, so that emulating them is an effective way of attaining accuracy in one’s credences. If we cannot align our beliefs to the truth directly, we do well to align them with sources of probabilistic information that have expert status for us.

James Joyce is a Professor of Philosophy and of statistics at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. His research interests include rational choice theory, causal reasoning, Bayesian approaches to statistics and inductive inference, the use of “imprecise” probabilities to model belief states, and general philosophy of science.