The war in Ukraine has propelled the geopolitics of the Black Sea region to the forefront of the strategic debate on European security. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is re-shaping regional geopolitics, highlighting the connections between the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Western Balkans. Developments in this region carry geoeconomic consequences too, considering the importance of the Black Sea for energy, transport and digital connectivity between Asia and Europe.
The growing recognition of the strategic importance of the Black Sea and of the interconnected challenges and opportunities in the region is a first step. The question is how to translate this vision into a tangible and coherent policy framework and to ensure its effective implementation.
Under the lead of LSE Ideas, the “Black Sea Futures in a Multipolar World” project aims to help answer this question through an integrated, anticipatory and policy-oriented approach. The main objectives of the project include:
- Analysing how Russia’s war against Ukraine changed the strategic landscape in the Black Sea region, including the evolving threat assessment of the UK, European partners, the EU and NATO.
- Exploring the relevance of the Black Sea for inter-regional connectivity and the geoeconomic approaches of old and new players through their economic statecraft.
- Assessing the effectiveness of the efforts by the UK, the EU, key European countries and NATO to enhance the security of this region, which is closely intertwined with the security of Europe at large.
- Identifying challenges and opportunities and drawing policy implications for the evolution of their strategic approach to the Black Sea.
This project builds on ongoing work on the Black Sea at LSE. In June 2025, the LSE International Relations Department hosted a workshop on "Black Sea Futures" with the participation of senior experts and practitioners from the UK and other European counties to discuss geopolitical and geoeconomic developments in the Black Sea region and policy implications for Europe. LSE Ideas also published in October 2024 a research report dedicated to “Security Challenges in the Black Sea: NATO, the Wider Region and the Global Order” and, in July 2025, a strategic insight on “The Changing Face of the South Caucasus”.