Mathias Frisch (Leibniz University Hannover): “Calibration, Validation, and Confirmation”

Abstract: In this talk I examine the role of parameter calibration in the confirmation and validation of complex computer simulation models. Focusing in particular on Bayesian approaches to confirmation. I distinguish several different Bayesian approaches to confirmation and propose a novel Bayesian argument for the thesis that complex simulation models exhibit a predictivist effect: Complex computer simulation models constitute a case in which predictive success, as opposed to the mere accommodation of evidence, provides a more stringent test of a model.