London in unprecedented state of political flux

Modelling of a new poll, commissioned by LSE, ahead of the May 7 Local Elections, reveals a volatile electorate and a capital in unprecedented state of political flux.

• Labour is projected to be pushed into second place in seven of the boroughs they currently control. The party now leads in fewer than half of London councils, with its vote share down by 15 points on average across the capital.
• In 13 councils, the largest party is less than 5 points ahead of the runner-up, leaving a third of the Capital at risk of No Overall Control.
• 6-in-10 voters plan to split their ballots, boosting smaller parties and putting every borough in contention.

A Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model, based on a survey of 2,022 Londoners conducted by JL Partners, finds that while Labour is on course to remain the largest party across much of London, its vote share has fallen sharply – with the Greens and Reform UK emerging as major new forces in different parts of the city.

The findings suggest that support for Labour and Conservatives is fragmenting and opening the door for a surge in smaller challengers. Labour is still London’s largest party, but the Green and Reform advance are reshaping the capital’s political map.

The Labour and Conservative vote has dropped everywhere.

At the 2022 local elections, Labour made historic gains, winning control of flagship Conservative councils including Westminster, Wandsworth, and Barnet – some of which had been Conservative-run for decades. But the new modelling suggests that Labour’s dominance is rapidly eroding, with its vote fracturing in all directions.

Labour’s vote share is projected to fall everywhere, in some cases dramatically. In Barking and Dagenham, where Labour secured around 80% of the vote in 2022, support is now projected at just 44%, with both the Green Party and Reform UK rising to around a fifth of the vote each.

Labour is doing best in inner boroughs such as Islington, Hackney and Lambeth, where they are projected to win between 40% and 42% of the vote. But while Labour is still the largest party in these authorities, its vote-share lead has been significantly slashed, with the Greens closing the gap within 10 percentage points.

For the Conservatives, the difficulties they faced at the last Local Election have not gone away. They continue to lose support in outer London, with the model projecting that support for the Conservatives in Croydon will almost halve, from 38% in 2022 to just 21%. Bexley, Hillingdon and Bromley are also set to see the Conservative vote share fall by more than a third.

Greens are surging in Inner London, and Reform is repeating the success of UKIP in parts of Outer London.

The Green Party is projected to emerge as the clear second force across much of inner London, achieving 37% in Hackney and Haringey, 35% in Lewisham, and 34% in Newham and Lambeth.

Reform UK is projected to make its strongest vote-share gains in outer east London, including 40% in Havering, 35% in Bexley, and 25% in Bromley.

Liberal Democrats remain dominant in south-west London, with projected vote shares of 49% in Richmond upon Thames and 47% in Kingston upon Thames. They are also projected to perform well in Southwark (21%), Merton (31%), and Sutton (36%).

Declining party allegiance means a more competitive – but less predictable – system.

A key driver of this fragmentation is the rise of split-ticket voting. Respondents in the survey were given three votes to allocate as they wished. According to the poll, 60% of Londoners chose to divide their support between several parties. This behaviour boosts smaller parties and increases the likelihood of closely contested councils.

But translating these figures into seats depends heavily on how votes are distributed geographically. This creates particular uncertainty for challenger parties such as Reform UK and the Greens, where the geographic spread of support remains unclear. Parties with concentrated support may win large majorities in a few wards but fail to secure overall control, while parties with evenly distributed support can convert similar vote shares into more seats.

Professor Tony Travers CBE, Associate Dean of the LSE School of Public Policy and Director of LSE London, said: “This poll suggests unprecedented change faces London’s borough government. The surge of the Greens and Reform, coupled with falling Labour and Conservative vote, will produce many more councils with no majority control. Such an outcome will make governing more difficult. The result looks set to deliver the most profound change to London’s politics since the shocking result of 1968, when Labour was wiped out by the Conservatives."

Tom Lubbock, Co-founder of JL Partners, said: “Our polling shows that London is following the rest of England to an era of five party politics. While Labour still receives the most votes, the underlying story is how competitive these races now are.

"The Green Party, Reform and Independent parties are making significant inroads to the point where a small swing against Labour would mean them losing a swathe of councils – control of so many councils could come down to very fine margins, which makes outcomes much more volatile at the local level.”

JL Partners polled a representative sample of 2,022 London residents on behalf of LSE. The sample was quota-ed and weighted to ensure representative data on gender, age, borough, education, ethnicity, religion, 2024 general election vote and political attention. Data was weighted back to representative targets on the same variables. Sample collected using an online panel. Fieldwork occurred 17th–27th March 2026. JL Partners is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abides by its rules.

Voting intention in councils was modelled using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP). MRP is a technique that combines polling with Census demographics, previous general and local election results, and other data sources to estimate public opinion in small areas. Our large sample poll tells us the political preferences of many different small groups of people – for example, non-graduate white men aged 44-55. The Census and other data sources provide estimates of how many voters like this live in each borough. The model then combines estimates of how each group would vote with estimates of how many people in each area live in those areas to project voting intention in those areas.

This model is a projection of vote share, not of council seats or overall control – the relationship between vote share and seats depends on the geographic distribution of votes within each borough, and parties with concentrated support may win more or fewer seats than their aggregate share would imply.