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From Pledges to Pathways: Scenario-Based Policy Modelling for Kuwait’s Bioenergy Transition to Net Zero

In collaboration with Australian University

LSE PI: Dr Francisco de Melo Virissimo
KU PI: Dr Jean ElAchker
Duration: 1 January 2026 - 31 December 2027

Pathway with palm trees leading to a modern building

Kuwait’s pledge to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 represents a historic commitment. Yet today, the country remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with electricity demand rising rapidly, renewable energy contributing less than 1% of the energy mix, and over 90% of organic waste still disposed of in landfills. These landfills emit large volumes of methane and carbon dioxide, intensifying climate risks, environmental degradation, and public health challenges.

This project moves beyond technical feasibility to address the real challenge facing Kuwait’s energy transition. The focus is on designing policies that are economically viable, institutionally implementable, and socially acceptable. By combining system dynamics modelling, scenario analysis, and a nationwide citizen survey, the study evaluates how electricity tariff reform, carbon pricing, fiscal incentives, regulatory enforcement, and public participation interact to shape Kuwait’s bioenergy pathway. The research will test three policy futures, Business as Usual, Moderate Transition, and High Ambition Reform, to identify the conditions under which bioenergy becomes a practical and scalable solution for Kuwait.

The project will deliver Kuwait’s first integrated policy simulation framework for bioenergy, translating the Net Zero 2060 pledge into actionable, evidence-based pathways. Its outputs will inform national climate strategies, support Vision 2035, and provide decision-makers with a clear roadmap for integrating waste management, renewable energy, and climate governance into a coherent transition toward a more resilient and sustainable Kuwait.

This project forms part of the Kuwait Programme, funded by the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS).

This project forms part of Kuwait Programme, funded by the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Science (KFAS).

(C) Image from Pexels

Principal Investigators:

  • Francisco de Melo Viríssimo | Principal Investigator

    Francisco de Melo Viríssimo is a Researcher at the Grantham Research Institute, where he co-leads the UKRI/Defra-funded ATTENUATE project. His academic background spans mathematics, earth and environmental sciences, with prior roles at the UK’s National Oceanography Centre and visiting appointments at international research institutions. Among several awards, he recently received the 2026 Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Scientists from the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

  • Dr Jean Henri El Achker | Co-Principle Investigator

    Jean Henri El Achkar is an Associate Professor of Petroleum Engineering and Manager of the Project-Based Learning Center at the Australian University in Kuwait. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre and served as a visiting scholar at the UNU-FLORES in Germany. His research focuses on bioenergy, waste valorisation, and circular economy systems, with an emphasis on policy pathways for sustainable energy transitions.