How Myanmar’s War Became the World’s Second Biggest Drone Fight
Drones have not singularly determined Myanmar’s trajectory, but they have played a structurally significant role in shaping the course of the war since 2021 in ways unimaginable over the preceding seven decades.
Myanmar’s war is currently the world’s second most intense conflict for drone attacks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is a nationwide uprising in which diverse rebel groups with significant youth participation and technological capability confront a well established military backed by China and Russia. Both the military and opposing armed groups make extensive use of drones, whose accessibility and adaptability allow new attack methods that overcome major operational constraints. Myanmar’s experience shows that simple, inexpensive drones can be employed at scale across a wide array of operational contexts. As such, the war offers a ground truth: drones are being mainstreamed into modern warfare far beyond the confines of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Drones have emerged as a key tool for China, offering relatively light engagement with plausible deniability.
About the Author
Matthew B. Arnold, PhD, is an academic and policy analyst specializing in politics and governance in conflict-affected countries. He is currently a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science and the programme director for IDEAS’ Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Programme. Arnold is the co-author of two books - Militias and the Challenges of Post-Conflict Peace (Zed Books) and South Sudan: From Revolution to Independence (Oxford University Press). He has published in leading journals such as Asian Survey, International Peacekeeping, Journal of Modern African Studies, and Conflict, Security and Development. He holds doctoral and master’s degrees from the London School of Economics and Political Science.