Golden visas, house prices and electoral accountability

Can governments win votes by cooling hot housing markets?

In 2022, Greece doubled the minimum golden-visa investment from €250,000 to €500,000, but only in selected high-demand municipalities.Using over 100,000 property transactions, we show the reform worked as intended on prices: bunching at the old threshold vanished, price growth slowed by about 10 percent, and sales fell by 17 percent. But demand did not disappear. It moved next door, into neighbouring municipalities that remained eligible. Linking five elections across 1,036 municipal units, we find the government earned no electoral credit where it cooled the market. Instead, voters punished the incumbent by around 2 percentage points in the spillover areas that absorbed the displaced demand. Targeted housing policy, it turns out, relocates both the pressure and the blame.

Meet our speakers and chair

Georgios Kevetsos is a Professor of Behavioural Economics and Public Policy; a Research Associate at the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics; and an Affiliate Scientist at Lee Kum Sheung Center for Health & Happiness at Harvard University. The first theme to his research seeks to understand how interventions shape individuals’ behaviour and preferences. The second studies the impact behaviours and interventions have on individuals’ well-being.

George Melios is Research Officer at the Hellenic Observatory, working on political economy and behavioural science issues. His research primarily focuses on the foundations of democracy: how democratic institutions function, how citizens interact with them and how they can be improved. Dr Melios looks at the electoral cycle through four essential angles: i) the factors that affect citizens' participation, ii) those that shape their preferences, iii) the effect of elections on policies and welfare, and iv) collective decision making when institutions fail.

Professor Vassilis Monastiriotis is Director of the LSE Centre for Research on Contemporary Greece and Cyprus - Hellenic Observatory, Professor in Political Economy and Eleftherios Venizelos Chair of Contemporary Greek Studies at the European Institute, LSE.

The Hellenic Observatory (@HO_LSE) is internationally recognised as one of the premier research centres on contemporary Greece and Cyprus. It engages in a range of activities, including developing and supporting academic and policy-related research; organisation of conferences, seminars and workshops; academic exchange through visiting fellowships and internships; as well as teaching at the graduate level through LSE's European Institute.

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LSE holds a wide range of events, covering many of the most controversial issues of the day, and speakers at our events may express views that cause offence. The views expressed by speakers at LSE events do not reflect the position or views of the London School of Economics and Political Science.